UFC 29: Defense of the Belts: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Yuki Kondo (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ortiz at 1059 versus Kondo at 967. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kondo throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Kondo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Yuki Kondo. We're leaning Ortiz here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Pat Miletich (8-1) taking on Kenichi Yamamoto (2-0).

Miletich carries a modest Elo edge (1150 to 1092), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miletich throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Miletich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Miletich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pat Miletich over Kenichi Yamamoto. We're leaning Miletich here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Matt Lindland (8-3) taking on Yoji Anjo (0-2).

Lindland is rated at 1239 — 472 points above Anjo's 767. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjo throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lindland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Lindland over Yoji Anjo. The model gives Lindland a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Fabiano Iha (3-3) taking on Daiju Takase (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Iha at 895 versus Takase at 794. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iha throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Iha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Iha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fabiano Iha over Daiju Takase. We're leaning Iha here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Evan Tanner (11-5) taking on Lance Gibson (1-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Tanner at 1034, Gibson at 1026. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tanner throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Tanner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Evan Tanner over Lance Gibson. The model gives Tanner a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Dennis Hallman (3-5) taking on Matt Hughes (18-6).

Hughes carries a modest Elo edge (1273 to 1203), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Hallman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hughes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Hallman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Hallman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hughes over Dennis Hallman. We're leaning Hughes here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Jeff Monson (4-2). Liddell is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Monson is rated at 1233 — 198 points above Liddell's 1035. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Monson has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Liddell's striker game against Monson's all-rounder approach. Liddell brings a versatile approach, while Monson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Monson throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Monson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Monson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeff Monson over Chuck Liddell. The model gives Monson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.