UFC 28: High Stakes: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Randy Couture (16-7) taking on Kevin Randleman (3-3).

Couture carries a modest Elo edge (1248 to 1189), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Couture rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Couture throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Randleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Randleman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Couture over Kevin Randleman. The model gives Couture a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Renato Sobral (5-4) taking on Maurice Smith (4-2).

Sobral carries a modest Elo edge (1190 to 1155), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Sobral is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Smith is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Smith the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sobral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maurice Smith over Renato Sobral. We're leaning Smith here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Super Heavyweight matchup features Josh Barnett (6-3) taking on Gan McGee (2-1).

Barnett is rated at 1454 — 354 points above McGee's 1100. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gan McGee over Josh Barnett. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McGee at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Aaron Brink (0-0).

Brink carries a modest Elo edge (890 to 858), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brink throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brink is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Brink has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Aaron Brink. The model gives Arlovski a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jens Pulver (6-1-1) taking on John Lewis (1-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pulver at 1133 versus Lewis at 1020. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pulver throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Lewis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jens Pulver over John Lewis. We're leaning Pulver here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Mark Hughes (0-0) taking on Alex Stiebling (0-0).

Hughes is rated at 1085 — 170 points above Stiebling's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stiebling throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stiebling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stiebling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Stiebling over Mark Hughes. The model gives Stiebling a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Ben Earwood (0-0) taking on Chris Lytle (9-10).

Lytle is rated at 1330 — 245 points above Earwood's 1085. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lytle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lytle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ben Earwood over Chris Lytle. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Earwood at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.