UFC 27: Ultimate Bad Boyz: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Pedro Rizzo (8-5) taking on Dan Severn (9-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rizzo at 1268 versus Severn at 1181. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Rizzo's striker game against Severn's submission artist approach. Rizzo brings a versatile approach, while Severn is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Severn throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Severn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Severn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pedro Rizzo over Dan Severn.** The model gives Rizzo a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Maurice Smith (4-2) taking on Bobby Hoffman (0-1).

Smith is rated at 1155 — 228 points above Hoffman's 927. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hoffman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hoffman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Maurice Smith over Bobby Hoffman.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smith at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Jeremy Horn (6-6) taking on Eugene Jackson (3-3).

Horn carries a modest Elo edge (936 to 882), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Horn is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Jackson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Jackson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horn throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Horn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Horn over Eugene Jackson.** The model is firm on this one: Horn at 76%.

The Welterweight matchup features Fabiano Iha (3-3) taking on Laverne Clark (4-0).

Clark is rated at 1095 — 200 points above Iha's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Clark has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Laverne Clark over Fabiano Iha.** We're leaning Clark here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Yuki Kondo (1-1) taking on Alexandre Dantas (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kondo at 967 versus Dantas at 821. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dantas throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dantas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dantas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexandre Dantas over Yuki Kondo.** The model gives Dantas a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ian Freeman (3-2) taking on Tedd Williams (1-0).

Freeman carries a modest Elo edge (1054 to 981), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Freeman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Freeman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ian Freeman over Tedd Williams.** We're leaning Freeman here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jeff Monson (4-2) taking on Tim Lajcik (0-1-1).

Monson is rated at 1233 — 403 points above Lajcik's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Monson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lajcik throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lajcik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Monson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeff Monson over Tim Lajcik.** The model gives Monson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Brad Gumm (0-1) taking on CJ Fernandes (0-0).

Fernandes carries a modest Elo edge (990 to 925), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gumm throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Fernandes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fernandes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Gumm over CJ Fernandes.** We're leaning Gumm here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.