UFC 26: Ultimate Field Of Dreams: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 26: Ultimate Field Of Dreams lands on Friday, June 9, 2000 in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, USA with 8 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Randleman vs Pedro RizzoHeavyweight | Pedro Rizzo | Lean | 56% |
| Tyrone Roberts vs David DoddMiddleweight | Tyrone Roberts | Lean | 64% |
| Pat Miletich vs John AlessioWelterweight | Pat Miletich | Confident | 66% |
| Amaury Bitetti vs Alex AndradeMiddleweight | Alex Andrade | Confident | 67% |
| Matt Hughes vs Marcelo AguiarWelterweight | Matt Hughes | Strong | 78% |
| Jens Pulver vs Joao RoqueLightweight | Jens Pulver | Strong | 88% |
| Ian Freeman vs Nate SchroederHeavyweight | Nate Schroeder | Lean | 59% |
| Shonie Carter vs Adrian SerranoWelterweight | Shonie Carter | Strong | 84% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Kevin Randleman vs Pedro Rizzo
The Heavyweight championship matchup features Kevin Randleman (3-3) taking on Pedro Rizzo (8-5).
Rizzo carries a modest Elo edge (1268 to 1189), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Randleman's wrestler game against Rizzo's striker approach. Randleman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rizzo brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rizzo throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Randleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Rizzo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pedro Rizzo over Kevin Randleman. The model gives Rizzo a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Tyrone Roberts vs David Dodd
The Middleweight matchup features Tyrone Roberts (0-0) taking on David Dodd (0-1).
Roberts is rated at 1062 — 222 points above Dodd's 840. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Dodd throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dodd is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tyrone Roberts over David Dodd. The model gives Roberts a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Pat Miletich vs John Alessio
The Welterweight matchup features Pat Miletich (8-1) taking on John Alessio (0-4).
Miletich is rated at 1150 — 357 points above Alessio's 793. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Miletich throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Miletich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Alessio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pat Miletich over John Alessio. We're leaning Miletich here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Amaury Bitetti vs Alex Andrade
The Middleweight matchup features Amaury Bitetti (0-1) taking on Alex Andrade (0-0).
Andrade carries a modest Elo edge (1000 to 955), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bitetti throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alex Andrade over Amaury Bitetti. We're leaning Andrade here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Matt Hughes vs Marcelo Aguiar
The Welterweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Marcelo Aguiar (0-0).
Hughes is rated at 1273 — 377 points above Aguiar's 896. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Aguiar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Hughes over Marcelo Aguiar. The model is firm on this one: Hughes at 78%.
Jens Pulver vs Joao Roque
The Lightweight matchup features Jens Pulver (6-1-1) taking on Joao Roque (0-0).
Pulver is rated at 1133 — 188 points above Roque's 945. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pulver throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pulver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Roque has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jens Pulver over Joao Roque. The model is firm on this one: Pulver at 88%.
Ian Freeman vs Nate Schroeder
The Heavyweight matchup features Ian Freeman (3-2) taking on Nate Schroeder (0-0).
Freeman is rated at 1054 — 220 points above Schroeder's 833. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Schroeder throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Schroeder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Schroeder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nate Schroeder over Ian Freeman. The model gives Schroeder a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Shonie Carter vs Adrian Serrano
The Welterweight matchup features Shonie Carter (3-2) taking on Adrian Serrano (0-0).
Serrano carries a modest Elo edge (935 to 905), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Carter throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Carter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.5 more per 15 minutes. Serrano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Shonie Carter over Adrian Serrano. The model is firm on this one: Carter at 84%.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.