UFC 25: Ultimate Japan 3: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Wanderlei Silva (4-7). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Ortiz.

Silva is rated at 1282 — 223 points above Ortiz's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ortiz brings a versatile approach, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.8 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Wanderlei Silva. We're leaning Ortiz here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Murilo Bustamante (2-1) taking on Yoji Anjo (0-2).

Bustamante is rated at 1363 — 597 points above Anjo's 767. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjo throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bustamante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yoji Anjo over Murilo Bustamante. The model gives Anjo a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Sanae Kikuta (0-0) taking on Eugene Jackson (3-3).

Kikuta is rated at 1164 — 282 points above Jackson's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kikuta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eugene Jackson over Sanae Kikuta. We're leaning Jackson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ron Waterman (1-1-1) taking on Satoshi Honma (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Waterman at 1032 versus Honma at 898. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Waterman throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Honma has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ron Waterman over Satoshi Honma. The model gives Waterman a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ikuhisa Minowa (0-0) taking on Joe Slick (1-0).

Minowa is rated at 1181 — 207 points above Slick's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Slick throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Slick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.2 more per 15 minutes. Minowa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Slick over Ikuhisa Minowa. The model is firm on this one: Slick at 79%.

The Lightweight matchup features Laverne Clark (4-0) taking on Koji Oishi (0-1).

Clark is rated at 1095 — 177 points above Oishi's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Clark rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Oishi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Laverne Clark over Koji Oishi. We're leaning Clark here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.