UFC 23: Ultimate Japan 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Kevin Randleman (4-3) taking on Pete Williams (3-5).

Randleman is rated at 1334 — 408 points above Williams's 927. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Randleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.5 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Randleman over Pete Williams. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Randleman at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Pedro Rizzo (9-5) taking on Tsuyoshi Kohsaka (3-3).

Rizzo is rated at 1328 — 223 points above Kohsaka's 1105. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rizzo brings a versatile approach, while Kohsaka is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Kohsaka the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kohsaka throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kohsaka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Kohsaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tsuyoshi Kohsaka over Pedro Rizzo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kohsaka at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Open Weight matchup features Kenichi Yamamoto (2-1) taking on Katsuhisa Fujii (1-1).

Yamamoto is rated at 1124 — 289 points above Fujii's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fujii throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fujii is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fujii has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kenichi Yamamoto over Katsuhisa Fujii. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yamamoto at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Joe Slick (1-1) taking on Jason DeLucia (1-2).

Slick carries a modest Elo edge (949 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. DeLucia throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. DeLucia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. DeLucia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason DeLucia over Joe Slick. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward DeLucia at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Eugene Jackson (3-4) taking on Keiichiro Yamamiya (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jackson at 870, Yamamiya at 866. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Yamamiya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yamamiya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eugene Jackson over Keiichiro Yamamiya. The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Kenichi Yamamoto (2-1) taking on Daiju Takase (0-3).

Yamamoto is rated at 1124 — 350 points above Takase's 773. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yamamoto throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Takase is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yamamoto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kenichi Yamamoto over Daiju Takase. The model is firm on this one: Yamamoto at 79%.

The Open Weight matchup features Katsuhisa Fujii (1-1) taking on Masutatsu Yano (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Fujii at 834 versus Yano at 724. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fujii throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Fujii is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Yano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Katsuhisa Fujii over Masutatsu Yano. The model is firm on this one: Fujii at 77%.