UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Rodrigo Nascimento (4-2).

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 274 points above Nascimento's 1092. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lewis's striker game against Nascimento's all-rounder approach. Lewis brings a versatile approach, while Nascimento is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nascimento throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nascimento is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nascimento has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento over Derrick Lewis. The model gives Nascimento a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-4) taking on Nursulton Ruziboev (3-1). There's a 7-inch height gap favoring Ruziboev.

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 401 points above Ruziboev's 1327. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buckley throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruziboev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Ruziboev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev over Joaquin Buckley. The model gives Ruziboev a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Ulberg (8-1) taking on Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Ulberg.

Ulberg is rated at 1803 — 596 points above Menifield's 1207. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulberg rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulberg throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulberg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ulberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Ulberg over Alonzo Menifield. The model gives Ulberg a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Ferreira (10-6) taking on Mateusz Rebecki (4-2). Ferreira is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ferreira at 1213 versus Rebecki at 1098. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rebecki throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rebecki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Rebecki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateusz Rebecki over Diego Ferreira. The model gives Rebecki a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Sean Woodson (7-1-1) taking on Alex Caceres (16-12). Woodson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Woodson at 1235, Caceres at 1232. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Woodson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodson throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Woodson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Woodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Woodson over Alex Caceres. The model gives Woodson a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Waldo Cortes Acosta (9-2) taking on Robelis Despaigne (1-1). Despaigne is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Acosta is rated at 1637 — 753 points above Despaigne's 884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Despaigne throws significantly more leather — a 17.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Despaigne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Despaigne has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robelis Despaigne over Waldo Cortes Acosta. The model gives Despaigne a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Chase Hooper (8-3) taking on Viacheslav Borshchev (3-5-1). Hooper is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Hooper is rated at 1175 — 362 points above Borshchev's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hooper rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Hooper's submission artist game against Borshchev's striker approach. Hooper is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Borshchev brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borshchev throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Borshchev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Viacheslav Borshchev. We're leaning Hooper here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Esteban Ribovics (3-2) taking on Terrance McKinney (7-4). McKinney will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ribovics is rated at 1278 — 168 points above McKinney's 1110. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ribovics is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McKinney is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving McKinney the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribovics throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. McKinney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Ribovics has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terrance McKinney over Esteban Ribovics. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McKinney at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tabatha Ricci (6-3) taking on Tecia Pennington (11-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ricci at 1355 versus Pennington at 1206. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Ricci looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ricci the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ricci is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tabatha Ricci over Tecia Pennington. We're leaning Ricci here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Trey Waters (2-0) taking on Billy Ray Goff (1-1). Waters is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Waters is rated at 1075 — 173 points above Goff's 902. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Goff throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Waters is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Goff has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Billy Ray Goff over Trey Waters. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Goff at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Charles Johnson (7-5) taking on Jake Hadley (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1097 versus Hadley at 967. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Hadley over Charles Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hadley at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Veronica Hardy (4-5) taking on JJ Aldrich (9-6). Aldrich will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hardy at 1091, Aldrich at 1079. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Hardy's all-rounder game against Aldrich's striker approach. Hardy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Aldrich brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Aldrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Veronica Hardy over JJ Aldrich. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hardy at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.