UFC 19: Ultimate Young Guns: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Guy Mezger (4-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Mezger at 1155 versus Ortiz at 1059. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Mezger has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.9 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Guy Mezger. The model is firm on this one: Ortiz at 80%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gary Goodridge (3-4) taking on Andre Roberts (1-1).

Goodridge carries a modest Elo edge (1190 to 1130), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Goodridge throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Goodridge is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Roberts over Gary Goodridge. The model gives Roberts a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jeremy Horn (6-6) taking on Chuck Liddell (16-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Liddell at 1035 versus Horn at 936. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Horn's wrestler game against Liddell's striker approach. Horn looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Liddell brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Horn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Horn over Chuck Liddell. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Horn at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Kevin Randleman (3-3) taking on Maurice Smith (4-2).

Randleman carries a modest Elo edge (1189 to 1155), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Randleman's wrestler game against Smith's knockout artist approach. Randleman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Smith is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Randleman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maurice Smith over Kevin Randleman. The model gives Smith a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Evan Tanner (11-5) taking on Valeri Ignatov (0-1).

Tanner is rated at 1034 — 186 points above Ignatov's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tanner throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Ignatov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Evan Tanner over Valeri Ignatov. The model is firm on this one: Tanner at 81%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Pete Williams (3-4) taking on Jason Godsey (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Williams at 853, Godsey at 877. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Godsey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Godsey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pete Williams over Jason Godsey. The model is firm on this one: Williams at 84%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Sione Latu (0-0) taking on Joey Roberts (0-0).

Latu is rated at 1128 — 255 points above Roberts's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sione Latu over Joey Roberts. The model gives Latu a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.