UFC 16: Battle in the Bayou: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 16: Battle in the Bayou lands on Friday, March 13, 1998 in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA with 8 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Shamrock vs Igor ZinovievMiddleweight | Frank Shamrock | Strong | 75% |
| Tsuyoshi Kohsaka vs Kimo LeopoldoHeavyweight | Kimo Leopoldo | Lean | 60% |
| Pat Miletich vs Chris BrennanLightweight | Chris Brennan | Lean | 63% |
| Jerry Bohlander vs Kevin JacksonMiddleweight | Jerry Bohlander | Lean | 57% |
| Pat Miletich vs Townsend SaundersLightweight | Pat Miletich | Strong | 91% |
| Mikey Burnett vs Eugenio TadeuLightweight | Mikey Burnett | Lean | 61% |
| Chris Brennan vs Courtney TurnerLightweight | Chris Brennan | Strong | 89% |
| Laverne Clark vs Josh StuartLightweight | Laverne Clark | Lean | 58% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Frank Shamrock vs Igor Zinoviev
The Middleweight matchup features Frank Shamrock (4-0) taking on Igor Zinoviev (0-0).
Shamrock is rated at 1480 — 550 points above Zinoviev's 930. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Shamrock rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Shamrock throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Zinoviev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Zinoviev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Frank Shamrock over Igor Zinoviev. The model is firm on this one: Shamrock at 75%.
Tsuyoshi Kohsaka vs Kimo Leopoldo
The Heavyweight matchup features Tsuyoshi Kohsaka (3-2) taking on Kimo Leopoldo (2-3).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kohsaka at 1014, Leopoldo at 1039. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Leopoldo throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Leopoldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Kohsaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kimo Leopoldo over Tsuyoshi Kohsaka. The model gives Leopoldo a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Pat Miletich vs Chris Brennan
The Lightweight matchup features Pat Miletich (8-1) taking on Chris Brennan (1-1).
Miletich is rated at 1150 — 225 points above Brennan's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Brennan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brennan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Brennan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chris Brennan over Pat Miletich. The model gives Brennan a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Jerry Bohlander vs Kevin Jackson
The Middleweight matchup features Jerry Bohlander (5-1) taking on Kevin Jackson (2-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Bohlander at 1090 versus Jackson at 977. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Bohlander rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 16.9 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jerry Bohlander over Kevin Jackson. The model gives Bohlander a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Pat Miletich vs Townsend Saunders
The Lightweight matchup features Pat Miletich (8-1) taking on Townsend Saunders (0-1).
Miletich is rated at 1150 — 255 points above Saunders's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Miletich throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Saunders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Saunders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pat Miletich over Townsend Saunders. The model is firm on this one: Miletich at 91%.
Mikey Burnett vs Eugenio Tadeu
The Lightweight matchup features Mikey Burnett (1-1) taking on Eugenio Tadeu (0-0).
Burnett is rated at 1124 — 251 points above Tadeu's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Tadeu throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tadeu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tadeu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mikey Burnett over Eugenio Tadeu. The model gives Burnett a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Chris Brennan vs Courtney Turner
The Lightweight matchup features Chris Brennan (1-1) taking on Courtney Turner (0-0).
Brennan carries a modest Elo edge (925 to 856), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Brennan throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brennan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Turner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chris Brennan over Courtney Turner. The model is firm on this one: Brennan at 89%.
Laverne Clark vs Josh Stuart
The Lightweight matchup features Laverne Clark (4-0) taking on Josh Stuart (0-0).
Clark is rated at 1095 — 222 points above Stuart's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Clark rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Stuart throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stuart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stuart has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Laverne Clark over Josh Stuart. The model gives Clark a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.