UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Saturday, May 4, 2024·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Flyweight✓
Alexandre Pantoja won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Pantoja 62%38% Erceg
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +352(favors Pantoja)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Erceg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Pantoja)
Bantamweight✗
Jose Aldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldo 23%77% Martinez
STRONG
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Martinez)
Light Heavyweight✗
Anthony Smith won by Submission (R1)
Smith 37%63% Petrino
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +6(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Petrino)
Middleweight✓
Michel Pereira won by Submission (R1)
Pereira 73%27% Potieria
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +559(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Pereira)
Middleweight✓
Caio Borralho won by KO/TKO (R2)
Borralho 72%28% Craig
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +62(favors Borralho)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Borralho)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Borralho)
Featherweight✗
Joanderson Brito won by KO/TKO (R2)
Brito 49%51% Shore
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Brito)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Shore)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Brito)
Women's Strawweight✓
Iasmin Lucindo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lucindo 67%33% Kowalkiewicz
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Lucindo)
Lightweight✗
Myktybek Orolbai won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Orolbai 45%55% Brener
LEAN
→Elo gap: -80(favors Brener)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.8(favors Brener)
→Takedown rate advantage: +10.5(favors Orolbai)
Lightweight✓
Drakkar Klose won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Klose 62%38% Silva
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +333(favors Klose)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Klose)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Klose)
Lightweight✗
Mauricio Ruffy won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ruffy 44%56% Mullarkey
LEAN
→Elo gap: -33(favors Mullarkey)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Mullarkey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Mullarkey)
Women's Flyweight✗
Dione Barbosa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barbosa 43%57% Kareckaite
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Kareckaite)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Kareckaite)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kareckaite)
Lightweight✓
Ismael Bonfim won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bonfim 57%43% Pichel
LEAN
→Elo gap: -207(favors Pichel)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Bonfim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Pichel)
Flyweight✓
Alessandro Costa won by KO/TKO (R2)
Costa 54%46% Borjas
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +71(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Borjas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Costa)