UFC 12: Judgement Day: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Coleman (7-4) taking on Dan Severn (9-3).

Severn is rated at 1181 — 186 points above Coleman's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coleman throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Coleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Severn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Coleman over Dan Severn. The model gives Coleman a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Scott Ferrozzo (2-1).

Belfort is rated at 1255 — 314 points above Ferrozzo's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferrozzo throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferrozzo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Belfort has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Ferrozzo over Vitor Belfort. The model gives Ferrozzo a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jerry Bohlander (5-1) taking on Nick Sanzo (0-0).

Bohlander is rated at 1090 — 177 points above Sanzo's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bohlander rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bohlander throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bohlander is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Sanzo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jerry Bohlander over Nick Sanzo. The model is firm on this one: Bohlander at 81%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Tra Telligman (1-3).

Belfort is rated at 1255 — 408 points above Telligman's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belfort throws significantly more leather — a 12.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Telligman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Telligman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Tra Telligman. The model is firm on this one: Belfort at 92%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Scott Ferrozzo (2-1) taking on Jim Mullen (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ferrozzo at 941 versus Mullen at 851. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferrozzo throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferrozzo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Mullen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Ferrozzo over Jim Mullen. The model is firm on this one: Ferrozzo at 91%.

The Lightweight matchup features Yoshiki Takahashi (0-0) taking on Wallid Ismail (0-0).

Takahashi is rated at 1085 — 170 points above Ismail's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ismail throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ismail is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ismail has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yoshiki Takahashi over Wallid Ismail. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Takahashi at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jerry Bohlander (5-1) taking on Rainy Martinez (0-0).

Bohlander is rated at 1090 — 152 points above Martinez's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bohlander rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bohlander throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bohlander is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jerry Bohlander over Rainy Martinez. The model is firm on this one: Bohlander at 92%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Justin Martin (0-0) taking on Eric Martin (0-0).

Martin is rated at 1111 — 221 points above Martin's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Martin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Martin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Martin over Eric Martin. The model gives Martin a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Nick Sanzo (0-0) taking on Jackie Lee (0-0).

Sanzo carries a modest Elo edge (914 to 841), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nick Sanzo over Jackie Lee. The model is firm on this one: Sanzo at 87%.