UFC 11: The Proving Ground: Predictions & Analysis

The Open Weight matchup features Scott Ferrozzo (2-1) taking on David Abbott (8-9).

Ferrozzo is rated at 941 — 165 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abbott throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferrozzo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Ferrozzo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Abbott over Scott Ferrozzo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Abbott at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Open Weight matchup features Mark Coleman (7-4) taking on Brian Johnston (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Coleman at 995 versus Johnston at 915. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Coleman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnston is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Coleman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coleman throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Coleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Coleman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Coleman over Brian Johnston.** We're leaning Coleman here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Jerry Bohlander (5-1) taking on Fabio Gurgel (0-0).

Bohlander is rated at 1090 — 178 points above Gurgel's 912. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bohlander rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bohlander throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gurgel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gurgel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jerry Bohlander over Fabio Gurgel.** The model gives Bohlander a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features David Abbott (8-9) taking on Sam Adkins (2-1).

Adkins is rated at 1002 — 225 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abbott throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Abbott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Adkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Abbott over Sam Adkins.** The model is firm on this one: Abbott at 85%.

The Open Weight matchup features Brian Johnston (2-3) taking on Reza Nasri (0-0).

Johnston carries a modest Elo edge (915 to 879), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnston throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnston is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Nasri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brian Johnston over Reza Nasri.** The model is firm on this one: Johnston at 94%.

The Open Weight matchup features Mark Coleman (7-4) taking on Julian Sanchez (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Coleman at 995, Sanchez at 975. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coleman throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Coleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Coleman over Julian Sanchez.** The model is firm on this one: Coleman at 95%.

The Open Weight matchup features Roberto Traven (1-0) taking on Dave Berry (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Traven at 978 versus Berry at 873. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Berry throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Berry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Berry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roberto Traven over Dave Berry.** The model gives Traven a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Scott Ferrozzo (2-1) taking on Sam Fulton (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ferrozzo at 941 versus Fulton at 812. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferrozzo throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferrozzo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Fulton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Scott Ferrozzo over Sam Fulton.** The model is firm on this one: Ferrozzo at 93%.