UFC 8: David vs Goliath: Predictions & Analysis

The Open Weight matchup features Don Frye (6-1) taking on Gary Goodridge (3-4).

Frye is rated at 1404 — 213 points above Goodridge's 1190. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Goodridge throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Goodridge is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Goodridge has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gary Goodridge over Don Frye.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Goodridge at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Open Weight matchup features Ken Shamrock (6-4-2) taking on Kimo Leopoldo (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Shamrock at 1125 versus Leopoldo at 1039. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shamrock throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Leopoldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Shamrock has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ken Shamrock over Kimo Leopoldo.** The model gives Shamrock a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Gary Goodridge (3-4) taking on Jerry Bohlander (5-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Goodridge at 1190 versus Bohlander at 1090. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Bohlander has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Goodridge's striker game against Bohlander's submission artist approach. Goodridge brings a versatile approach, while Bohlander is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Goodridge throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Goodridge is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Bohlander has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gary Goodridge over Jerry Bohlander.** We're leaning Goodridge here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Don Frye (6-1) taking on Sam Adkins (2-1).

Frye is rated at 1404 — 402 points above Adkins's 1002. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frye throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Adkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Adkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Don Frye over Sam Adkins.** The model is firm on this one: Frye at 90%.

The Open Weight matchup features Gary Goodridge (3-4) taking on Paul Herrera (0-0).

Goodridge is rated at 1190 — 302 points above Herrera's 889. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Goodridge throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Goodridge is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Herrera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gary Goodridge over Paul Herrera.** The model is firm on this one: Goodridge at 89%.

The Open Weight matchup features Jerry Bohlander (5-1) taking on Scott Ferrozzo (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bohlander at 1090 versus Ferrozzo at 941. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Bohlander rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bohlander throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferrozzo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ferrozzo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jerry Bohlander over Scott Ferrozzo.** The model is firm on this one: Bohlander at 89%.

The Open Weight matchup features Paul Varelans (4-3) taking on Joe Moreira (0-1).

Moreira carries a modest Elo edge (1038 to 962), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Varelans throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Varelans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Moreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Varelans over Joe Moreira.** The model is firm on this one: Varelans at 85%.

The Open Weight matchup features Don Frye (6-1) taking on Thomas Ramirez (0-0).

Frye is rated at 1404 — 462 points above Ramirez's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frye throws significantly more leather — a 5.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Frye is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Ramirez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Don Frye over Thomas Ramirez.** The model is firm on this one: Frye at 95%.

The Open Weight matchup features Sam Adkins (2-1) taking on Keith Mielke (0-0).

Adkins is rated at 1002 — 159 points above Mielke's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mielke throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mielke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mielke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Adkins over Keith Mielke.** The model is firm on this one: Adkins at 89%.