UFC 7: The Brawl in Buffalo: Predictions & Analysis

The Open Weight matchup features Marco Ruas (4-1) taking on Paul Varelans (4-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ruas at 1088 versus Varelans at 962. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Varelans throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Varelans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ruas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Varelans over Marco Ruas.** The model is firm on this one: Varelans at 82%.

The Open Weight matchup features Ken Shamrock (6-4-2) taking on Oleg Taktarov (4-1-1).

Taktarov carries a modest Elo edge (1204 to 1125), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shamrock throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Shamrock is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Taktarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ken Shamrock over Oleg Taktarov.** The model gives Shamrock a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Marco Ruas (4-1) taking on Remco Pardoel (2-1).

Ruas carries a modest Elo edge (1088 to 1047), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ruas throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pardoel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Ruas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marco Ruas over Remco Pardoel.** We're leaning Ruas here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Paul Varelans (4-3) taking on Mark Hall (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hall at 1051 versus Varelans at 962. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Varelans throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Varelans over Mark Hall.** The model is firm on this one: Varelans at 82%.

The Open Weight matchup features Marco Ruas (4-1) taking on Larry Cureton (0-1).

Ruas is rated at 1088 — 262 points above Cureton's 826. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ruas throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cureton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ruas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marco Ruas over Larry Cureton.** The model is firm on this one: Ruas at 91%.

The Open Weight matchup features Remco Pardoel (2-1) taking on Ryan Parker (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pardoel at 1047 versus Parker at 904. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pardoel throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pardoel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Parker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Remco Pardoel over Ryan Parker.** The model is firm on this one: Pardoel at 93%.

The Open Weight matchup features Mark Hall (3-2) taking on Harold Howard (1-1).

Hall is rated at 1051 — 197 points above Howard's 854. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Howard throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Howard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Hall over Harold Howard.** The model is firm on this one: Hall at 80%.

The Open Weight matchup features Paul Varelans (4-3) taking on Gerry Harris (0-0).

Varelans carries a modest Elo edge (962 to 884), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Varelans throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Varelans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Varelans over Gerry Harris.** The model is firm on this one: Varelans at 94%.

The Open Weight matchup features Scott Bessac (1-0) taking on David Hood (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bessac at 981 versus Hood at 890. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hood throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Scott Bessac over David Hood.** We're leaning Bessac here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Onassis Parungao (0-0) taking on Francesco Maturi (0-0).

Parungao is rated at 1128 — 255 points above Maturi's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maturi throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Maturi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Maturi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Onassis Parungao over Francesco Maturi.** The model gives Parungao a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Joel Sutton (1-0) taking on Geza Kalman (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sutton at 1210 versus Kalman at 1075. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kalman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kalman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kalman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joel Sutton over Geza Kalman.** We're leaning Sutton here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.