UFC 6: Clash of the Titans: Predictions & Analysis

The Open Weight matchup features Oleg Taktarov (4-1-1) taking on David Abbott (8-9).

Taktarov is rated at 1204 — 427 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abbott throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Abbott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Abbott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Oleg Taktarov over David Abbott.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Taktarov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Open Weight matchup features Ken Shamrock (6-4-2) taking on Dan Severn (9-3).

Severn carries a modest Elo edge (1181 to 1125), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shamrock throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Severn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Shamrock has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ken Shamrock over Dan Severn.** The model gives Shamrock a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Oleg Taktarov (4-1-1) taking on Anthony Macias (0-1).

Taktarov is rated at 1204 — 329 points above Macias's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Macias throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Macias is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Macias has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Oleg Taktarov over Anthony Macias.** We're leaning Taktarov here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features David Abbott (8-9) taking on Paul Varelans (4-3).

Varelans is rated at 962 — 186 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abbott throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Abbott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Varelans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Abbott over Paul Varelans.** The model is firm on this one: Abbott at 79%.

The Open Weight matchup features Oleg Taktarov (4-1-1) taking on Dave Beneteau (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Taktarov at 1204 versus Beneteau at 1110. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beneteau throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Beneteau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Taktarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Oleg Taktarov over Dave Beneteau.** The model is firm on this one: Taktarov at 84%.

The Open Weight matchup features Patrick Smith (3-1) taking on Rudyard Moncayo (0-0).

Smith is rated at 1260 — 311 points above Moncayo's 949. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Smith rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Moncayo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moncayo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Patrick Smith over Rudyard Moncayo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smith at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Open Weight matchup features Paul Varelans (4-3) taking on Cal Worsham (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Varelans at 962, Worsham at 959. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Varelans throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Worsham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Worsham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Varelans over Cal Worsham.** The model is firm on this one: Varelans at 87%.

The Open Weight matchup features David Abbott (8-9) taking on John Matua (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Matua at 898 versus Abbott at 777. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abbott throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Abbott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Matua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Abbott over John Matua.** The model is firm on this one: Abbott at 94%.

The Open Weight matchup features Anthony Macias (0-1) taking on He-Man Gipson (0-0).

Macias carries a modest Elo edge (874 to 828), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Macias throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gipson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gipson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Macias over He-Man Gipson.** The model is firm on this one: Macias at 86%.

The Open Weight matchup features Joel Sutton (1-0) taking on Jack McGlaughlin (0-0).

Sutton is rated at 1210 — 338 points above McGlaughlin's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGlaughlin throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McGlaughlin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McGlaughlin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joel Sutton over Jack McGlaughlin.** The model gives Sutton a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.