UFC 5: The Return of the Beast: Predictions & Analysis

The Open Weight matchup features Dan Severn (9-3) taking on Dave Beneteau (2-3).

Severn carries a modest Elo edge (1181 to 1110), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Severn throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Severn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Beneteau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Severn over Dave Beneteau.** The model is firm on this one: Severn at 81%.

The Open Weight matchup features Ken Shamrock (6-4-2) taking on Royce Gracie (8-0-1).

Gracie is rated at 1310 — 185 points above Shamrock's 1125. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shamrock throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Shamrock is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Gracie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Royce Gracie over Ken Shamrock.** The model gives Gracie a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Dan Severn (9-3) taking on Oleg Taktarov (4-1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Severn at 1181, Taktarov at 1204. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Severn throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Severn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Taktarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Severn over Oleg Taktarov.** The model is firm on this one: Severn at 78%.

The Open Weight matchup features Dave Beneteau (2-3) taking on Todd Medina (0-0).

Beneteau is rated at 1110 — 259 points above Medina's 851. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beneteau throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Medina is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Medina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dave Beneteau over Todd Medina.** The model is firm on this one: Beneteau at 92%.

The Open Weight matchup features Dan Severn (9-3) taking on Joe Charles (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Severn at 1181 versus Charles at 1076. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Severn throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Severn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Charles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Severn over Joe Charles.** The model is firm on this one: Severn at 91%.

The Open Weight matchup features Oleg Taktarov (4-1-1) taking on Ernie Verdicia (0-0).

Taktarov is rated at 1204 — 331 points above Verdicia's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Verdicia throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Verdicia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Verdicia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Oleg Taktarov over Ernie Verdicia.** The model is firm on this one: Taktarov at 90%.

The Open Weight matchup features Todd Medina (0-0) taking on Larry Cureton (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Medina at 851, Cureton at 826. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cureton throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cureton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cureton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Todd Medina over Larry Cureton.** The model is firm on this one: Medina at 89%.

The Open Weight matchup features Jon Hess (0-0) taking on Andy Anderson (0-0).

Hess is rated at 1128 — 255 points above Anderson's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Hess over Andy Anderson.** We're leaning Hess here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Guy Mezger (4-0) taking on John Dowdy (0-0).

Mezger is rated at 1155 — 238 points above Dowdy's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mezger rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mezger throws significantly more leather — a 8.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Mezger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.8 more per 15 minutes. Dowdy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Guy Mezger over John Dowdy.** The model is firm on this one: Mezger at 90%.

The Open Weight matchup features Dave Beneteau (2-3) taking on Asbel Cancio (0-0).

Beneteau is rated at 1110 — 206 points above Cancio's 905. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beneteau throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Beneteau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Cancio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dave Beneteau over Asbel Cancio.** The model is firm on this one: Beneteau at 94%.