UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Saturday, April 27, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Flyweight✗
Alex Perez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Perez 36%64% Nicolau
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -16(favors Nicolau)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Nicolau)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Nicolau)
Light Heavyweight✗
Bogdan Guskov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Guskov 33%67% Spann
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -241(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Spann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Spann)
Women's Flyweight✓
Karine Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 54%46% Silva
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +26(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Silva)
Heavyweight✓
Jhonata Diniz won by KO/TKO (R2)
Diniz 57%43% Lane
LEAN
→Elo gap: +83(favors Diniz)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.4(favors Lane)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lane)
Featherweight✗
David Onama won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Onama 42%58% Pearce
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Pearce)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Onama)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.2(favors Pearce)
Welterweight✓
Uros Medic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Medic 54%46% Means
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -55(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Medic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Means)
Bantamweight✓
Victor Henry won by KO/TKO (R3)
Henry 53%47% Yahya
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -55(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.3(favors Henry)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Yahya)
Lightweight✗
Austin Hubbard won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hubbard 48%52% Figlak
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -53(favors Figlak)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Hubbard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Hubbard)
Heavyweight✓
Don'Tale Mayes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mayes 54%46% Machado
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +138(favors Mayes)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Machado)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Mayes)
Women's Strawweight✓
Ketlen Souza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Souza 52%48% Mann
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +4(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Mann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mann)
Lightweight✗
Chris Padilla won by Submission (R1)
Padilla 37%63% Llontop
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Llontop)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Llontop)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Llontop)
Women's Flyweight✗
Ivana Petrovic won by Submission (R3)
Petrovic 46%54% Na
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +257(favors Petrovic)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Na)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Na)
Lightweight✓
Maheshate won by Decision - Split (R3)
Maheshate 54%46% Benitez
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -65(favors Benitez)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Benitez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Benitez)