UFC 4: Revenge of the Warriors: Predictions & Analysis

The Open Weight matchup features Royce Gracie (8-1) taking on Dan Severn (9-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gracie at 1379, Severn at 1355. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gracie throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gracie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Severn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Royce Gracie over Dan Severn. The model is firm on this one: Gracie at 77%.

The Open Weight matchup features Dan Severn (9-4) taking on Marcus Bossett (1-2).

Severn is rated at 1355 — 464 points above Bossett's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Severn throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Severn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Bossett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Severn over Marcus Bossett. The model is firm on this one: Severn at 89%.

The Open Weight matchup features Royce Gracie (8-1) taking on Keith Hackney (2-2).

Gracie is rated at 1379 — 312 points above Hackney's 1067. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hackney throws significantly more leather — a 17.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gracie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Hackney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Royce Gracie over Keith Hackney. The model is firm on this one: Gracie at 87%.

The Open Weight matchup features Dan Severn (9-4) taking on Anthony Macias (1-2).

Severn is rated at 1355 — 494 points above Macias's 860. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Severn throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Severn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Macias has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Severn over Anthony Macias. The model is firm on this one: Severn at 86%.

The Open Weight matchup features Steve Jennum (2-1) taking on Melton Bowen (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jennum at 1061 versus Bowen at 917. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jennum throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jennum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.3 more per 15 minutes. Bowen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Jennum over Melton Bowen. The model is firm on this one: Jennum at 83%.

The Open Weight matchup features Keith Hackney (2-2) taking on Joe Son (0-1).

Hackney is rated at 1067 — 177 points above Son's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hackney throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Son is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Son has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Keith Hackney over Joe Son. The model is firm on this one: Hackney at 79%.

The Open Weight matchup features Royce Gracie (8-1) taking on Ron van Clief (0-1).

Gracie is rated at 1379 — 400 points above Clief's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gracie throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gracie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Clief has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Royce Gracie over Ron van Clief. The model is firm on this one: Gracie at 85%.

The Open Weight matchup features Guy Mezger (4-1) taking on Jason Fairn (0-1).

Mezger is rated at 1258 — 450 points above Fairn's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mezger rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fairn throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fairn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fairn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Guy Mezger over Jason Fairn. We're leaning Mezger here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Marcus Bossett (1-2) taking on Eldo Xavier Dias (0-1).

Bossett is rated at 890 — 173 points above Dias's 718. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bossett throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dias is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dias has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcus Bossett over Eldo Xavier Dias. The model is firm on this one: Bossett at 93%.

The Open Weight matchup features Joe Charles (2-2) taking on Kevin Rosier (0-1).

Charles is rated at 1092 — 257 points above Rosier's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosier throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rosier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Charles over Kevin Rosier. The model gives Charles a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.