UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Saturday, March 28, 2026·Seattle, Washington, USA
Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%Upcoming
Middleweight
Adesanya 48%52% Pyfer
Method Prediction
KO 44%Sub 23%Dec 33%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +29(favors Adesanya)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Adesanya)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Pyfer)
Women's Flyweight
Grasso 53%47% Barber
Method Prediction
KO 25%Sub 35%Dec 40%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -167(favors Barber)
Lightweight
Hooper 50%50% Jr.
Method Prediction
KO 23%Sub 41%Dec 36%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +218(favors Hooper)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Hooper)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Hooper)
Light Heavyweight
Stirling 59%41% Lopes
Method Prediction
KO 44%Sub 36%Dec 20%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +172(favors Stirling)
Heavyweight
Tybura 32%68% Walker
Method Prediction
KO 45%Sub 25%Dec 30%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -72(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Tybura)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.4(favors Walker)
Welterweight
Chiesa 57%43% Harris
Method Prediction
KO 26%Sub 48%Dec 26%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +394(favors Chiesa)
Middleweight
Abdul-Malik 40%60% Belgaroui
Method Prediction
KO 29%Sub 25%Dec 46%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -2(favors Belgaroui)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.6(favors Belgaroui)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Belgaroui)
Women's Flyweight
O'Neill 58%42% Fernandes
Method Prediction
KO 23%Sub 44%Dec 33%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +50(favors O'Neill)
Featherweight
Erosa 55%45% Douglas
Method Prediction
KO 30%Sub 38%Dec 32%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +280(favors Erosa)
Featherweight
Kangjie 50%50% Barbosa
Method Prediction
KO 21%Sub 44%Dec 35%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Barbosa)
Women's Strawweight
Foro 45%55% Luciano
Method Prediction
KO 18%Sub 44%Dec 38%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -105(favors Luciano)
Lightweight
McKinney 51%49% Nelson
Method Prediction
KO 36%Sub 32%Dec 32%
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -161(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +12.0(favors McKinney)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors McKinney)