UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alex Pereira (9-2) taking on Jamahal Hill (6-3).

Pereira is rated at 2004 — 608 points above Hill's 1396. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pereira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hill brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Pereira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pereira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Pereira over Jamahal Hill.** The model gives Pereira a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Zhang Weili (10-2) taking on Yan Xiaonan (9-3).

Weili is rated at 1649 — 237 points above Xiaonan's 1412. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Weili rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Weili's wrestler game against Xiaonan's striker approach. Weili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Xiaonan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weili throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Weili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Xiaonan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zhang Weili over Yan Xiaonan.** The model gives Weili a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight championship matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Justin Gaethje (9-5).

Holloway carries a modest Elo edge (1897 to 1847), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Holloway's all-rounder game against Gaethje's striker approach. Holloway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gaethje brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Holloway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Max Holloway over Justin Gaethje.** The model gives Holloway a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Arman Tsarukyan (9-2) taking on Charles Oliveira (23-11). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Tsarukyan at 1836, Oliveira at 1846. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Tsarukyan rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Tsarukyan's striker game against Oliveira's submission artist approach. Tsarukyan brings a versatile approach, while Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tsarukyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Tsarukyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan over Charles Oliveira.** The model gives Tsarukyan a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Bo Nickal (4-1) taking on Cody Brundage (5-6). Nickal will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nickal is rated at 1320 — 450 points above Brundage's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nickal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brundage is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Nickal the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nickal throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nickal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Nickal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bo Nickal over Cody Brundage.** The model gives Nickal a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jiri Prochazka (5-2) taking on Aleksandar Rakic (6-4).

Prochazka is rated at 1806 — 523 points above Rakic's 1283. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Prochazka is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rakic looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rakic the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prochazka throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Prochazka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Rakic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jiri Prochazka over Aleksandar Rakic.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Prochazka at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Calvin Kattar (7-7). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Kattar.

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 452 points above Kattar's 1231. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sterling looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kattar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sterling the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kattar throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Kattar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Calvin Kattar.** We're leaning Sterling here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Kayla Harrison (2-0) taking on Holly Holm (8-6). Holm will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Harrison is rated at 1470 — 343 points above Holm's 1127. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holm throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Holm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Harrison has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Holly Holm over Kayla Harrison.** The model gives Holm a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Lopes (6-2) taking on Sodiq Yusuff (6-3).

Lopes is rated at 1614 — 501 points above Yusuff's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yusuff throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Yusuff is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Yusuff has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sodiq Yusuff over Diego Lopes.** We're leaning Yusuff here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Renato Moicano (12-6) taking on Jalin Turner (7-6). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Moicano at 1542 versus Turner at 1393. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Moicano's wrestler game against Turner's knockout artist approach. Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Turner is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turner throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jalin Turner over Renato Moicano.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Turner at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Andrade carries a modest Elo edge (1115 to 1059), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Marina Rodriguez.** The model gives Andrade a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Jim Miller (27-17).

Miller carries a modest Elo edge (1213 to 1176), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Green's all-rounder game against Miller's knockout artist approach. Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miller is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: King Green over Jim Miller.** The model gives Green a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Cody Garbrandt (9-6). Figueiredo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Figueiredo is rated at 1490 — 335 points above Garbrandt's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Figueiredo's all-rounder game against Garbrandt's striker approach. Figueiredo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Garbrandt brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Figueiredo throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Garbrandt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo over Cody Garbrandt.** The model gives Figueiredo a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.