UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-9) taking on Mike Malott (6-1). Malott is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Burns carries a modest Elo edge (1542 to 1498), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Malott has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malott throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Malott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Malott over Gilbert Burns. We're leaning Malott here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyler Phillips (6-3) taking on Charles Jourdain (8-7-1). Phillips will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Phillips at 1346, Jourdain at 1344. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Phillips is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jourdain looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jourdain the stylistic edge.

The Pick: Charles Jourdain over Kyler Phillips. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jourdain at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-3) taking on Karine Silva (5-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jasudavicius at 1427 versus Silva at 1323. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jasudavicius throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jasudavicius is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius over Karine Silva. The model gives Jasudavicius a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Buzukja (1-3) taking on Marcio Barbosa (0-0). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Buzukja.

There's a real Elo separation here: Barbosa at 1000 versus Buzukja at 912. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The Pick: Dennis Buzukja over Marcio Barbosa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Buzukja at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Mandel Nallo (0-0) taking on Jai Herbert (3-5-1).

Herbert carries a modest Elo edge (1046 to 1000), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The Pick: Mandel Nallo over Jai Herbert. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nallo at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features JJ Aldrich (10-6) taking on Jamey-Lyn Horth (4-2).

Horth carries a modest Elo edge (1191 to 1113), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Aldrich's striker game against Horth's all-rounder approach. Aldrich brings a versatile approach, while Horth is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldrich throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Horth is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Horth has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamey-Lyn Horth over JJ Aldrich. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Horth at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Julien Leblanc (0-0) taking on Robert Valentin (0-3).

Leblanc is rated at 1000 — 283 points above Valentin's 717. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Valentin throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Valentin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Leblanc has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Valentin over Julien Leblanc. We're leaning Valentin here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tanner Boser (5-5) taking on Gokhan Saricam (0-0).

Boser carries a modest Elo edge (1051 to 1000), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boser throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Saricam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Saricam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tanner Boser over Gokhan Saricam. The model is firm on this one: Boser at 79%.

The Flyweight matchup features Mitch Raposo (1-2) taking on Allan Nascimento (4-1). Nascimento is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Nascimento is rated at 1393 — 418 points above Raposo's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nascimento has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nascimento throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Raposo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Raposo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mitch Raposo over Allan Nascimento. The model gives Raposo a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Melissa Croden (1-1) taking on Daria Zhelezniakova (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Zhelezniakova at 1192 versus Croden at 1068. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zhelezniakova throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Croden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Zhelezniakova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melissa Croden over Daria Zhelezniakova. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Croden at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features DongHun Choi (1-0) taking on Andre Lima (4-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lima at 1286 versus Choi at 1191. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Lima has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Choi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: DongHun Choi over Andre Lima. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Choi at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.