UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Saturday, May 9, 2026·Newark, New Jersey, USA
Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%Upcoming
Middleweight
4.0Strikes/Min6.0
61%Str Acc43%
43%Str Def61%
55%TD Acc64%
Chimaev 69%31% Strickland
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Brawler — Wrestler wins 57% historically
→Elo gap: +275(favors Chimaev)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.4(favors Chimaev)
Heavyweight
5.0Strikes/Min5.4
57%Str Acc49%
54%Str Def57%
67%TD Acc57%
Volkov 56%44% Acosta
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEAN
Brawler vs Knockout Artist — Brawler wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +143(favors Volkov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Acosta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Volkov)
Light Heavyweight
3.5Strikes/Min4.6
50%Str Acc56%
52%Str Def45%
49%TD Acc0%
Blachowicz 44%56% Guskov
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEAN
Brawler vs Brawler — Brawler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +109(favors Blachowicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Guskov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Blachowicz)
Middleweight
4.1Strikes/Min8.3
41%Str Acc53%
52%Str Def61%
100%TD Acc0%
Gautier 74%26% Diaz
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +275(favors Gautier)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Gautier)
Welterweight
3.5Strikes/Min3.6
55%Str Acc37%
59%Str Def59%
53%TD Acc45%
Brady 48%52% Buckley
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Brawler — Wrestler wins 57% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Brady)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Buckley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Brady)
Lightweight
6.5Strikes/Min3.1
53%Str Acc41%
62%Str Def59%
45%TD Acc38%
Green 71%29% Stephens
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENT
Brawler vs Knockout Artist — Brawler wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +259(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Green)
Flyweight
2.9Strikes/Min3.0
55%Str Acc38%
52%Str Def61%
43%TD Acc50%
Carpenter 37%63% Ochoa
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -119(favors Ochoa)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Ochoa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Carpenter)