UFC Freedom 250
Sunday, June 14, 2026·Washington, DC, USA
Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%Upcoming
Lightweight
4.8Strikes/Min6.5
48%Str Acc59%
64%Str Def51%
61%TD Acc40%
Topuria 73%27% Gaethje
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENT
Brawler vs Knockout Artist — Brawler wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +260(favors Topuria)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Topuria)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Topuria)
Heavyweight
5.2Strikes/Min5.3
62%Str Acc62%
54%Str Def61%
50%TD Acc25%
Pereira 45%55% Gane
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Brawler — Knockout Artist wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Gane)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Gane)
Bantamweight
6.0Strikes/Min4.5
61%Str Acc48%
60%Str Def69%
43%TD Acc14%
O'Malley 69%31% Zahabi
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +155(favors O'Malley)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Zahabi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Zahabi)
Lightweight
4.0Strikes/Min4.0
58%Str Acc51%
59%Str Def40%
0%TD Acc41%
Ruffy 74%26% Chandler
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Brawler — Knockout Artist wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +85(favors Ruffy)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Ruffy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Chandler)
Middleweight
3.3Strikes/Min2.5
61%Str Acc50%
60%Str Def43%
47%TD Acc24%
Nickal 67%33% Daukaus
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Brawler — Wrestler wins 57% historically
→Elo gap: +147(favors Nickal)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Nickal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Nickal)
Featherweight
4.0Strikes/Min4.8
48%Str Acc47%
46%Str Def63%
50%TD Acc57%
Lopes 48%52% Garcia
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UP
Brawler vs Brawler — Brawler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +106(favors Lopes)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Garcia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Lopes)