UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas
Saturday, March 23, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's Flyweight✓
Rose Namajunas won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Namajunas 55%45% Ribas
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +144(favors Namajunas)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Ribas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Ribas)
Heavyweight✓
Karl Williams won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Williams 66%34% Tafa
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -99(favors Tafa)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Tafa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Williams)
Middleweight✓
Edmen Shahbazyan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Shahbazyan 63%37% Dobson
LEAN
→Elo gap: +116(favors Shahbazyan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Dobson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Dobson)
Bantamweight✗
Payton Talbott won by KO/TKO (R2)
Talbott 48%52% Saaiman
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -64(favors Saaiman)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Saaiman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Saaiman)
Featherweight✗
Youssef Zalal won by Submission (R2)
Zalal 49%51% Quarantillo
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -361(favors Quarantillo)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.8(favors Quarantillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Zalal)
Featherweight✓
Fernando Padilla won by Submission (R1)
Padilla 65%35% Pajuelo
LEAN
→Elo gap: +54(favors Padilla)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.5(favors Padilla)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pajuelo)
Lightweight✓
Trey Ogden won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ogden 66%34% Holobaugh
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +65(favors Ogden)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Holobaugh)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Ogden)
Featherweight✗
Julian Erosa won by Submission (R1)
Erosa 39%61% Ramos
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -66(favors Ramos)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.4(favors Erosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Ramos)
Bantamweight✓
Miles Johns won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johns 65%35% Gibson
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +345(favors Johns)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Gibson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Gibson)
Featherweight✗
Jarno Errens won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Errens 42%58% Nguyen
LEAN
→Elo gap: -187(favors Nguyen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Errens)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nguyen)
Women's Bantamweight✗
Daria Zhelezniakova won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Zhelezniakova 42%58% Rendon
LEAN
→Elo gap: -83(favors Rendon)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Rendon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Rendon)
Flyweight✓
Andre Lima won by DQ (R2)
Lima 50%50% Severino
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +207(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Severino)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Severino)
Heavyweight✓
Mick Parkin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Parkin 64%36% Usman
LEAN
→Elo gap: -37(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Parkin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Parkin)