UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Dricus Du Plessis (9-1) taking on Sean Strickland (17-7).

Plessis is rated at 1989 — 157 points above Strickland's 1832. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Plessis rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Plessis throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Plessis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis over Sean Strickland. The model gives Plessis a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Plessis at 51% implied while our model sees 57% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-6) taking on Mayra Bueno Silva (5-6-1).

Pennington is rated at 1433 — 362 points above Silva's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Mayra Bueno Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pennington at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Pennington at 40% implied while our model sees 54% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-13) taking on Mike Malott (6-1). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Malott carries a modest Elo edge (1498 to 1418), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Malott has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malott throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Malott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Malott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Malott over Neil Magny. The model gives Malott a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Magny at 24% implied while our model sees 38% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Curtis (6-5) taking on Marc-Andre Barriault (6-10). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Barriault.

Curtis is rated at 1295 — 244 points above Barriault's 1051. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Curtis's striker game against Barriault's all-rounder approach. Curtis brings a versatile approach, while Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Barriault is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Curtis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Curtis over Marc-Andre Barriault. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Curtis at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Curtis, but our model sees only 53%. That 9-point gap favoring Barriault is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Movsar Evloev (10-0) taking on Arnold Allen (11-3).

Evloev is rated at 1891 — 282 points above Allen's 1609. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Evloev rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Evloev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Allen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Evloev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evloev throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Evloev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Evloev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Movsar Evloev over Arnold Allen. We're leaning Evloev here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Garrett Armfield (2-3) taking on Brad Katona (4-5). Armfield will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Armfield at 926 versus Katona at 839. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Armfield throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Katona is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Armfield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Katona over Garrett Armfield. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Katona at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Armfield at 34% implied while our model sees 47% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Sean Woodson (7-2-1) taking on Charles Jourdain (8-7-1). Woodson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Jourdain carries a modest Elo edge (1344 to 1294), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Woodson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jourdain throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Woodson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Woodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Jourdain over Sean Woodson. The model gives Jourdain a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ramon Taveras (1-2) taking on Serhiy Sidey (2-1). Sidey is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sidey is rated at 1206 — 321 points above Taveras's 885. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sidey throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sidey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sidey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Serhiy Sidey over Ramon Taveras. We're leaning Sidey here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (14-6) taking on Polyana Viana (4-7). Viana will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Robertson is rated at 1422 — 554 points above Viana's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Viana is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Robertson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Polyana Viana. We're leaning Robertson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Sam Patterson (4-2) taking on Yohan Lainesse (1-3). Patterson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Patterson is rated at 1417 — 724 points above Lainesse's 694. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Patterson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lainesse throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lainesse is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Lainesse has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yohan Lainesse over Sam Patterson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lainesse at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Patterson at 43% implied while our model sees 48% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-3) taking on Priscila Cachoeira (5-8). Jasudavicius will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jasudavicius is rated at 1427 — 456 points above Cachoeira's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cachoeira throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jasudavicius is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Jasudavicius has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius over Priscila Cachoeira. The model is firm on this one: Jasudavicius at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Jasudavicius at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Jimmy Flick (2-4) taking on Malcolm Gordon (2-5). Gordon will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Flick at 872 versus Gordon at 766. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Flick is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Gordon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Gordon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Malcolm Gordon over Jimmy Flick. We're leaning Gordon here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.