UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Dricus Du Plessis (9-0) taking on Sean Strickland (16-7).

Plessis carries a modest Elo edge (1860 to 1813), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Plessis rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Plessis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Strickland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Strickland the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Plessis throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Plessis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis over Sean Strickland.** The model gives Plessis a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Mayra Bueno Silva (5-5-1).

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 396 points above Silva's 1016. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Mayra Bueno Silva.** The model gives Pennington a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Mike Malott (5-1). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Malott at 1410 versus Magny at 1270. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malott throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Malott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Malott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Neil Magny over Mike Malott.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Magny at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Curtis (5-4) taking on Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Barriault.

Curtis is rated at 1258 — 304 points above Barriault's 954. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Curtis's striker game against Barriault's all-rounder approach. Curtis brings a versatile approach, while Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Barriault is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Curtis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault over Chris Curtis.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barriault at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Movsar Evloev (8-0) taking on Arnold Allen (11-2).

Evloev is rated at 1715 — 247 points above Allen's 1468. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Evloev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Evloev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Allen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Evloev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evloev throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Evloev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Evloev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Movsar Evloev over Arnold Allen.** The model gives Evloev a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Garrett Armfield (2-2) taking on Brad Katona (4-4). Armfield will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Armfield at 923 versus Katona at 838. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Armfield throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Katona is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Armfield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Garrett Armfield over Brad Katona.** The model gives Armfield a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Sean Woodson (7-1-1) taking on Charles Jourdain (7-7-1). Woodson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jourdain at 1354 versus Woodson at 1235. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Woodson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jourdain throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Woodson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Woodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Jourdain over Sean Woodson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jourdain at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ramon Taveras (1-1) taking on Serhiy Sidey (1-1). Sidey is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sidey is rated at 1120 — 209 points above Taveras's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sidey throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sidey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sidey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Serhiy Sidey over Ramon Taveras.** The model gives Sidey a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (12-6) taking on Polyana Viana (4-6). Viana will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Robertson is rated at 1352 — 484 points above Viana's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Viana is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Robertson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Polyana Viana.** We're leaning Robertson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Sam Patterson (3-1) taking on Yohan Lainesse (1-2). Patterson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Patterson is rated at 1343 — 563 points above Lainesse's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Patterson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lainesse throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lainesse is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Lainesse has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yohan Lainesse over Sam Patterson.** The model gives Lainesse a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2) taking on Priscila Cachoeira (5-7). Jasudavicius will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jasudavicius is rated at 1358 — 455 points above Cachoeira's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jasudavicius rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cachoeira throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jasudavicius is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Jasudavicius has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius over Priscila Cachoeira.** We're leaning Jasudavicius here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Jimmy Flick (2-3) taking on Malcolm Gordon (2-4). Gordon will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Flick carries a modest Elo edge (818 to 749), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Flick is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Gordon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Gordon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Malcolm Gordon over Jimmy Flick.** We're leaning Gordon here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.