UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Song Yadong (11-3-1) taking on Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1).

Yadong is rated at 1548 — 250 points above Gutierrez's 1298. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Yadong's all-rounder game against Gutierrez's striker approach. Yadong is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gutierrez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gutierrez throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Yadong is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gutierrez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Song Yadong over Chris Gutierrez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yadong at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6) taking on Anthony Smith (13-11). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Smith.

Jr. is rated at 1506 — 436 points above Smith's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jr.'s striker game against Smith's all-rounder approach. Jr. brings a versatile approach, while Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Smith over Khalil Rountree Jr..** The model gives Smith a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Nasrat Haqparast (10-4) taking on Jamie Mullarkey (6-6). Mullarkey is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Haqparast is rated at 1235 — 288 points above Mullarkey's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Haqparast rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Haqparast throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullarkey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Mullarkey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nasrat Haqparast over Jamie Mullarkey.** The model gives Haqparast a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Tim Elliott (9-11) taking on Sumudaerji (4-4). Sumudaerji will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Elliott is rated at 1241 — 188 points above Sumudaerji's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Elliott's wrestler game against Sumudaerji's knockout artist approach. Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sumudaerji is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sumudaerji throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Sumudaerji has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Elliott over Sumudaerji.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elliott at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Muniz (6-3) taking on JunYong Park (9-3). Muniz is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Park is rated at 1235 — 201 points above Muniz's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Park throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Muniz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Muniz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andre Muniz over JunYong Park.** We're leaning Muniz here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Jousset (2-1) taking on Song Kenan (6-4). Jousset is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jousset at 984, Kenan at 1007. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jousset throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jousset is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Kenan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Jousset over Song Kenan.** The model gives Jousset a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features HyunSung Park (3-1) taking on Shannon Ross (0-2).

Park is rated at 1010 — 291 points above Ross's 719. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Park throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Park has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: HyunSung Park over Shannon Ross.** We're leaning Park here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Steve Garcia (7-2) taking on Melquizael Costa (6-2). Garcia is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Garcia carries a modest Elo edge (1593 to 1550), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Both fighters bring momentum: Garcia rides a 6-fight win streak into this one, while Costa has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Garcia's knockout artist game against Costa's wrestler approach. Garcia is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Costa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Melquizael Costa over Steve Garcia.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Costa at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Luana Santos (4-1) taking on Stephanie Egger (3-3).

Santos is rated at 1277 — 341 points above Egger's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 14.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Egger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luana Santos over Stephanie Egger.** We're leaning Santos here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Tatsuro Taira (7-1) taking on Carlos Hernandez (3-3). Taira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Taira is rated at 1620 — 707 points above Hernandez's 913. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Taira's wrestler game against Hernandez's striker approach. Taira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hernandez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Taira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tatsuro Taira over Carlos Hernandez.** We're leaning Taira here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Talita Alencar (2-1) taking on Rayanne dos Santos (0-2). Santos will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Alencar is rated at 1168 — 391 points above Santos's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rayanne dos Santos over Talita Alencar.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.