UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Saturday, November 18, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✓
Brendan Allen won by Submission (R3)
Allen 81%19% Craig
STRONG
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +197(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Allen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Craig)
Welterweight✓
Michael Morales won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morales 64%36% Matthews
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +72(favors Morales)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Matthews)
Lightweight✓
Chase Hooper won by Submission (R1)
Hooper 52%48% Leavitt
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -158(favors Leavitt)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Hooper)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Hooper)
Bantamweight✓
Payton Talbott won by Submission (R3)
Talbott 56%44% Aguirre
LEAN
→Elo gap: +95(favors Talbott)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Aguirre)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Aguirre)
Women's Strawweight✓
Amanda Ribas won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ribas 54%46% Pinheiro
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Ribas)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Ribas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Pinheiro)
Welterweight✗
Myktybek Orolbai won by Submission (R2)
Orolbai 39%61% Medic
LEAN
→Elo gap: -297(favors Medic)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.3(favors Medic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Medic)
Featherweight✗
Joanderson Brito won by Submission (R2)
Brito 41%59% Pearce
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -99(favors Pearce)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Pearce)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Pearce)
Bantamweight✓
Jose Johnson won by Submission (R3)
Johnson 60%40% Anheliger
LEAN
→Elo gap: -122(favors Anheliger)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Anheliger)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Anheliger)
Middleweight✓
Christian Leroy Duncan won by KO/TKO (R2)
Duncan 77%23% Tiuliulin
STRONG
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +150(favors Duncan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Tiuliulin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tiuliulin)
Heavyweight✓
Mick Parkin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Parkin 76%24% Machado
STRONG
→Elo gap: +103(favors Parkin)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.3(favors Parkin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Machado)
Featherweight✗
Jeka Saragih won by KO/TKO (R1)
Saragih 29%71% Alexander
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -164(favors Alexander)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Alexander)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Alexander)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Ailin Perez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perez 74%26% Pudilova
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +75(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.4(favors Perez)
Lightweight
Ogden 52%48% Motta
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Ogden)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Motta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Ogden)
Flyweight✗
Rafael Estevam won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Estevam 47%53% Johnson
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +24(favors Estevam)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Johnson)