UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Saturday, October 7, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 2/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✗
King Green won by KO/TKO (R1)
Green 32%68% Dawson
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -217(favors Dawson)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.8(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Dawson)
Middleweight✓
Joe Pyfer won by Submission (R2)
Pyfer 66%34% Alhassan
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +79(favors Pyfer)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Pyfer)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Alhassan)
Welterweight✓
Joaquin Buckley won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Buckley 54%46% Morono
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -132(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Morono)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Buckley)
Lightweight✗
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dober 44%56% Glenn
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +323(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Dober)
Featherweight✗
Bill Algeo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Algeo 36%64% Hernandez
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Algeo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Algeo)
Women's Strawweight✗
Karolina Kowalkiewicz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kowalkiewicz 38%62% Belbita
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +262(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Belbita)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Kowalkiewicz)
Flyweight✗
Nate Maness won by KO/TKO (R1)
Maness 48%52% Mendonca
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +72(favors Maness)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Maness)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Mendonca)
Women's Strawweight✗
Vanessa Demopoulos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Demopoulos 36%64% Murata
LEAN
→Elo gap: +83(favors Demopoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Demopoulos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Murata)
Bantamweight✗
Aoriqileng won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aoriqileng 38%62% Munoz
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -16(favors Munoz)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Aoriqileng)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Munoz)
Women's Flyweight✗
JJ Aldrich won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldrich 43%57% Rosa
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -56(favors Rosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Aldrich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Rosa)