UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Steve Garcia (8-2) taking on David Onama (6-3).

Garcia is rated at 1656 — 297 points above Onama's 1359. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Garcia rides a 7-fight win streak into this one, while Onama has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Garcia's knockout artist game against Onama's all-rounder approach. Garcia is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Onama is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Onama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Garcia over David Onama. The model gives Garcia a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Garcia at 55% implied while our model sees 60% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Waldo Cortes Acosta (10-2) taking on Ante Delija (1-2).

Acosta is rated at 1714 — 527 points above Delija's 1186. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Acosta rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Delija throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Acosta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Acosta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ante Delija. The model gives Acosta a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Acosta at 46% implied while our model sees 62% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jeremiah Wells (5-2) taking on Themba Gorimbo (4-3). Gorimbo is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Wells is rated at 1369 — 171 points above Gorimbo's 1198. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gorimbo throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gorimbo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Gorimbo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Themba Gorimbo over Jeremiah Wells. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gorimbo at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Yadier del Valle (2-1) taking on Isaac Dulgarian (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Valle at 1091 versus Dulgarian at 959. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dulgarian throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Valle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Valle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yadier del Valle over Isaac Dulgarian. The model gives Valle a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Valle at 42% implied while our model sees 57% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Charles Radtke (4-2) taking on Daniel Frunza (0-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Frunza.

Radtke is rated at 1142 — 483 points above Frunza's 659. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frunza throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Radtke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Frunza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Radtke over Daniel Frunza. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Radtke at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Radtke, but our model sees only 50%. That 11-point gap favoring Frunza is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Allan Nascimento (4-1) taking on Cody Durden (6-8-1).

Nascimento is rated at 1393 — 478 points above Durden's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nascimento rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Nascimento's wrestler game against Durden's knockout artist approach. Nascimento looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Durden is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Durden throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Nascimento has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Allan Nascimento over Cody Durden. We're leaning Nascimento here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Billy Elekana (3-1) taking on Kevin Christian (0-1). Christian is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Elekana is rated at 1258 — 368 points above Christian's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elekana throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Elekana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Christian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Billy Elekana over Kevin Christian. We're leaning Elekana here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Elekana at 70% implied while our model sees 74% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Timmy Cuamba (2-2) taking on ChangHo Lee (2-1).

Cuamba is rated at 1227 — 223 points above Lee's 1003. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cuamba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Timmy Cuamba over ChangHo Lee. The model gives Cuamba a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Donte Johnson (2-0) taking on Sedriques Dumas (3-4). Dumas is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1177 — 330 points above Dumas's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dumas throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dumas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Donte Johnson over Sedriques Dumas. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Norma Dumont (9-2) taking on Ketlen Vieira (9-5).

Dumont is rated at 1615 — 264 points above Vieira's 1352. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dumont rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dumont's striker game against Vieira's wrestler approach. Dumont brings a versatile approach, while Vieira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dumont throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dumont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Dumont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Norma Dumont over Ketlen Vieira. The model gives Dumont a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Alice Ardelean (2-2) taking on Montserrat Conejo Ruiz (1-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ardelean.

Ardelean is rated at 935 — 295 points above Ruiz's 641. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ardelean throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Ardelean has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alice Ardelean over Montserrat Conejo Ruiz. The model gives Ardelean a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Seokhyeon Ko (2-0) taking on Phil Rowe (4-5). Rowe is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Ko is rated at 1401 — 265 points above Rowe's 1137. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rowe throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Ko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Seokhyeon Ko over Phil Rowe. We're leaning Ko here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ko at 62% implied while our model sees 71% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Talita Alencar (3-1) taking on Ariane Carnelossi (3-3). Carnelossi will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Alencar is rated at 1250 — 295 points above Carnelossi's 955. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carnelossi throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Alencar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Alencar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Talita Alencar over Ariane Carnelossi. We're leaning Alencar here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Alencar at 65% implied while our model sees 70% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.