UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
Saturday, September 2, 2023·Paris, Ile-de-France, France·11 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Ciryl Gane won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gane 56%44% Spivac
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +345(favors Gane)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Gane)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.9(favors Spivac)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Manon Fiorot won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fiorot 60%40% Namajunas
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 63% (-3.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -142(favors Namajunas)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Fiorot)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Fiorot)
LightweightHIT
Benoit Saint Denis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Denis 57%43% Moises
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 63% (-5.9% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +53(favors Denis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Denis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Denis)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Volkan Oezdemir won by Submission (R1)
Oezdemir 45%55% Guskov
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-15.7% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +404(favors Oezdemir)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Oezdemir)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Oezdemir)
FeatherweightHIT
William Gomis won by KO/TKO (R3)
Gomis 69%31% Ghemmouri
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+5.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +224(favors Gomis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Gomis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Gomis)
FeatherweightHIT
Morgan Charriere won by KO/TKO (R1)
Charriere 76%24% Zecchini
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Zecchini)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Zecchini)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Zecchini)
Prelims
BantamweightMISS
Taylor Lapilus won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lapilus 45%55% Loughran
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 61% (-16.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +216(favors Lapilus)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Lapilus)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Lapilus)
WelterweightHIT
Ange Loosa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Loosa 71%29% McKee
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 57% (+13.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +209(favors Loosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Loosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Loosa)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Nora Cornolle won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cornolle 36%64% Edwards
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
LEANMarket: 44% (-8.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -107(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Edwards)
BantamweightHIT
Farid Basharat won by Submission (R1)
Basharat 80%20% Rodrigues
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+4.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +2(favors Basharat)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Rodrigues)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Basharat)
Catch WeightHIT
Jacqueline Cavalcanti won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cavalcanti 71%29% Fairn
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-4.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +219(favors Cavalcanti)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.8(favors Fairn)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Fairn)