UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Ciryl Gane (10-2) taking on Serghei Spivac (9-6). Gane will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gane is rated at 1981 — 491 points above Spivac's 1490. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Spivac looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spivac the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gane throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.9 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Serghei Spivac. The model gives Gane a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Manon Fiorot (8-1) taking on Rose Namajunas (12-7).

Fiorot is rated at 1718 — 175 points above Namajunas's 1542. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Fiorot's striker game against Namajunas's all-rounder approach. Fiorot brings a versatile approach, while Namajunas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiorot throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fiorot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Fiorot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manon Fiorot over Rose Namajunas. The model gives Fiorot a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Fiorot, but our model sees only 60%. That 3-point gap favoring Namajunas is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Benoit Saint Denis (9-3) taking on Thiago Moises (8-7). Denis is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Denis is rated at 1798 — 588 points above Moises's 1210. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Denis rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Denis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Moises looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Moises the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Denis throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Denis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Moises has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Benoit Saint Denis over Thiago Moises. The model gives Denis a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Denis, but our model sees only 57%. That 6-point gap favoring Moises is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Volkan Oezdemir (9-7) taking on Bogdan Guskov (4-1-1).

Guskov carries a modest Elo edge (1594 to 1552), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Oezdemir brings a versatile approach, while Guskov is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Guskov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oezdemir throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Oezdemir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Guskov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bogdan Guskov over Volkan Oezdemir. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Guskov at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Oezdemir, but our model sees only 45%. That 16-point gap favoring Guskov is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features William Gomis (5-1) taking on Yanis Ghemmouri (0-2). Gomis is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gomis is rated at 1394 — 508 points above Ghemmouri's 885. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomis throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gomis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ghemmouri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: William Gomis over Yanis Ghemmouri. We're leaning Gomis here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Gomis at 64% implied while our model sees 69% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Morgan Charriere (3-3) taking on Manolo Zecchini (0-2).

Charriere is rated at 1216 — 503 points above Zecchini's 713. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zecchini throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Zecchini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Zecchini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Morgan Charriere over Manolo Zecchini. The model is firm on this one: Charriere at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Taylor Lapilus (6-2) taking on Caolan Loughran (2-2). Lapilus will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lapilus is rated at 1301 — 212 points above Loughran's 1089. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lapilus throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lapilus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Loughran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caolan Loughran over Taylor Lapilus. The model gives Loughran a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Lapilus, but our model sees only 45%. That 16-point gap favoring Loughran is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Ange Loosa (2-3) taking on Rhys McKee (1-5). McKee is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Loosa at 978 versus McKee at 832. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loosa throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Loosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Loosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ange Loosa over Rhys McKee. We're leaning Loosa here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Loosa at 57% implied while our model sees 71% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Nora Cornolle (3-3) taking on Joselyne Edwards (8-4). Edwards will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Edwards is rated at 1320 — 244 points above Cornolle's 1076. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Edwards has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Cornolle's all-rounder game against Edwards's striker approach. Cornolle is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Edwards brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Cornolle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joselyne Edwards over Nora Cornolle. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 44% for Cornolle, but our model sees only 36%. That 8-point gap favoring Edwards is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Farid Basharat (6-0) taking on Kleydson Rodrigues (1-3). Basharat is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Basharat is rated at 1572 — 667 points above Rodrigues's 905. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Basharat rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Basharat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Basharat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Farid Basharat over Kleydson Rodrigues. The model is firm on this one: Basharat at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Basharat at 76% implied while our model sees 80% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Jacqueline Cavalcanti (5-0) taking on Zarah Fairn (0-4).

Cavalcanti is rated at 1393 — 668 points above Fairn's 725. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Cavalcanti rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fairn throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Fairn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cavalcanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Zarah Fairn. We're leaning Cavalcanti here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Cavalcanti, but our model sees only 71%. That 5-point gap favoring Fairn is worth watching.