UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Chan Sung Jung (7-4). Jung will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 369 points above Jung's 1528. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jung is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Max Holloway over Chan Sung Jung.** The model is firm on this one: Holloway at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Smith (13-11) taking on Ryan Spann (8-6). Spann will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Spann carries a modest Elo edge (1116 to 1070), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Spann is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spann throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Spann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Spann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Spann over Anthony Smith.** The model gives Spann a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 43% for Smith, but our model sees only 36%. That 6-point gap favoring Spann is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Giga Chikadze (8-3) taking on Alex Caceres (16-12).

There's a real Elo separation here: Caceres at 1232 versus Chikadze at 1150. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Chikadze's knockout artist game against Caceres's all-rounder approach. Chikadze is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Caceres is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chikadze throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Chikadze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Giga Chikadze over Alex Caceres.** The model gives Chikadze a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Chikadze, but our model sees only 58%. That 9-point gap favoring Caceres is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rinya Nakamura (3-1) taking on Fernie Garcia (0-3).

Nakamura is rated at 1183 — 458 points above Garcia's 725. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nakamura throws significantly more leather — a 18.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nakamura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fernie Garcia over Rinya Nakamura.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Garcia at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Erin Blanchfield (7-1) taking on Taila Santos (4-2). Santos is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Blanchfield is rated at 1631 — 369 points above Santos's 1262. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Blanchfield is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Santos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Santos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blanchfield throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanchfield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Blanchfield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erin Blanchfield over Taila Santos.** We're leaning Blanchfield here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Blanchfield at 55% implied while our model sees 71% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Tafa (2-4) taking on Parker Porter (4-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Tafa.

Porter carries a modest Elo edge (883 to 828), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Porter throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Porter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Junior Tafa over Parker Porter.** The model gives Tafa a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Waldo Cortes Acosta (9-2) taking on Lukasz Brzeski (1-5).

Acosta is rated at 1637 — 829 points above Brzeski's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Acosta throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brzeski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Brzeski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta over Lukasz Brzeski.** The model gives Acosta a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Garrett Armfield (2-2) taking on Toshiomi Kazama (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Armfield at 923 versus Kazama at 837. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kazama throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kazama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Armfield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Garrett Armfield over Toshiomi Kazama.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Armfield at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Armfield, but our model sees only 51%. That 10-point gap favoring Kazama is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7) taking on Chidi Njokuani (5-4). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Oleksiejczuk is rated at 1268 — 185 points above Njokuani's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleksiejczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk over Chidi Njokuani.** The model gives Oleksiejczuk a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Oleksiejczuk at 52% implied while our model sees 58% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Song Kenan (6-4) taking on Rolando Bedoya (0-3). Bedoya will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Kenan is rated at 1007 — 243 points above Bedoya's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bedoya throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kenan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Bedoya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rolando Bedoya over Song Kenan.** The model gives Bedoya a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Billy Ray Goff (1-1) taking on Yusaku Kinoshita (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Goff at 902 versus Kinoshita at 772. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kinoshita throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kinoshita is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Goff has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yusaku Kinoshita over Billy Ray Goff.** The model gives Kinoshita a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Goff at 41% implied while our model sees 45% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features JJ Aldrich (9-6) taking on Liang Na (0-3).

Aldrich is rated at 1079 — 489 points above Na's 590. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldrich throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Na is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Aldrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Liang Na over JJ Aldrich.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Na at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features SeungWoo Choi (4-6) taking on Jarno Errens (1-2).

Errens carries a modest Elo edge (872 to 821), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Choi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Errens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jarno Errens over SeungWoo Choi.** The model gives Errens a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.