UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Saturday, July 29, 2023·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA·11 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✓✗✓✓✓✗✓✓✗✓
Main Card
LightweightHIT
Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gaethje 54%46% Poirier
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+12.6% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -15(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Poirier)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alex Pereira won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pereira 56%44% Blachowicz
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEANMarket: 49% (+7.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Blachowicz)
HeavyweightMISS
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lewis 32%68% Lima
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-2.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +97(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Lima)
LightweightHIT
King Green won by Submission (R3)
Green 75%25% Ferguson
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 76% (-0.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -95(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.2(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Ferguson)
WelterweightHIT
Kevin Holland won by Submission (R1)
Holland 53%47% Chiesa
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-4.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +17(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Holland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Chiesa)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Gabriel Bonfim won by Submission (R1)
Bonfim 67%33% Giles
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-7.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +158(favors Bonfim)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.8(favors Bonfim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Giles)
FlyweightMISS
CJ Vergara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vergara 47%53% Salvador
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-13.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +67(favors Vergara)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Vergara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Salvador)
MiddleweightHIT
Roman Kopylov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Kopylov 75%25% Ribeiro
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
STRONGMarket: 67% (+8.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +252(favors Kopylov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Kopylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Ribeiro)
WelterweightHIT
Jake Matthews won by Submission (R2)
Matthews 74%26% Flowers
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+3.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +326(favors Matthews)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Matthews)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Matthews)
Early Prelims
WelterweightMISS
Uros Medic won by KO/TKO (R3)
Medic 42%58% Semelsberger
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -85(favors Semelsberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Medic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Semelsberger)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Miranda Maverick won by Submission (R3)
Maverick 88%12% Cachoeira
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+15.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -129(favors Cachoeira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Cachoeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Maverick)