UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Saturday, July 29, 2023·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gaethje 52%48% Poirier
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+10.3% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Poirier)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Alex Pereira won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pereira 43%57% Blachowicz
LEANMarket: 49% (-5.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -209(favors Blachowicz)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Blachowicz)
HeavyweightMISS
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lewis 27%73% Lima
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-7.6% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -147(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Lima)
LightweightHIT
King Green won by Submission (R3)
Green 72%28% Ferguson
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-3.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -17(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.2(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Ferguson)
WelterweightHIT
Kevin Holland won by Submission (R1)
Holland 53%47% Chiesa
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-4.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +54(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Holland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Chiesa)
WelterweightHIT
Gabriel Bonfim won by Submission (R1)
Bonfim 61%39% Giles
LEANMarket: 75% (-14.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +67(favors Bonfim)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.8(favors Bonfim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Giles)
FlyweightMISS
CJ Vergara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vergara 45%55% Salvador
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +45(favors Vergara)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Vergara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Salvador)
MiddleweightHIT
Roman Kopylov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Kopylov 73%27% Ribeiro
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+5.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +163(favors Kopylov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Kopylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Ribeiro)
WelterweightHIT
Jake Matthews won by Submission (R2)
Matthews 78%22% Flowers
STRONGMarket: 71% (+6.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +232(favors Matthews)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Matthews)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Matthews)
WelterweightMISS
Uros Medic won by KO/TKO (R3)
Medic 37%63% Semelsberger
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -120(favors Semelsberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Medic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Semelsberger)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Miranda Maverick won by Submission (R3)
Maverick 79%21% Cachoeira
STRONGMarket: 72% (+7.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Cachoeira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Cachoeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Maverick)