UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Gaethje (9-5) taking on Dustin Poirier (22-8).

Gaethje is rated at 1847 — 166 points above Poirier's 1681. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gaethje brings a versatile approach, while Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Poirier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gaethje has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Gaethje over Dustin Poirier. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gaethje at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Gaethje at 42% implied while our model sees 52% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alex Pereira (9-2) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1).

Pereira is rated at 2004 — 425 points above Blachowicz's 1578. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pereira's striker game against Blachowicz's all-rounder approach. Pereira brings a versatile approach, while Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jan Blachowicz over Alex Pereira. The model gives Blachowicz a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Pereira, but our model sees only 43%. That 6-point gap favoring Blachowicz is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lewis at 1366 versus Lima at 1275. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lewis's striker game against Lima's wrestler approach. Lewis brings a versatile approach, while Lima looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Derrick Lewis. We're leaning Lima here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Lewis, but our model sees only 27%. That 8-point gap favoring Lima is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Tony Ferguson (15-8). Ferguson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Green at 1176 versus Ferguson at 1065. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 6.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferguson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: King Green over Tony Ferguson. We're leaning Green here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Green, but our model sees only 72%. That 4-point gap favoring Ferguson is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Michael Chiesa (13-7). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 234 points above Holland's 1257. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Chiesa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chiesa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Chiesa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Michael Chiesa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Holland at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Holland, but our model sees only 53%. That 4-point gap favoring Chiesa is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Gabriel Bonfim (5-1) taking on Trevin Giles (7-6).

Bonfim is rated at 1618 — 774 points above Giles's 845. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonfim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Bonfim looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Giles is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bonfim the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonfim throws significantly more leather — a 8.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Giles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Giles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Bonfim over Trevin Giles. The model gives Bonfim a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 75% for Bonfim, but our model sees only 61%. That 14-point gap favoring Giles is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features CJ Vergara (3-4) taking on Vinicius Salvador (0-2).

Salvador carries a modest Elo edge (820 to 766), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vergara throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Salvador is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Vergara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vinicius Salvador over CJ Vergara. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Salvador at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Kopylov (6-4) taking on Claudio Ribeiro (1-2).

Kopylov is rated at 1277 — 402 points above Ribeiro's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kopylov throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribeiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Kopylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roman Kopylov over Claudio Ribeiro. We're leaning Kopylov here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Kopylov at 67% implied while our model sees 73% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Darrius Flowers (0-2). Matthews is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 520 points above Flowers's 775. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Flowers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Darrius Flowers. The model is firm on this one: Matthews at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Matthews at 71% implied while our model sees 78% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Uros Medic (6-3) taking on Matthew Semelsberger (5-5). Semelsberger will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Medic is rated at 1484 — 622 points above Semelsberger's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medic throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Semelsberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Medic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matthew Semelsberger over Uros Medic. The model gives Semelsberger a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Miranda Maverick (8-3) taking on Priscila Cachoeira (5-7). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Cachoeira.

Maverick is rated at 1264 — 361 points above Cachoeira's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maverick rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Maverick's all-rounder game against Cachoeira's striker approach. Maverick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cachoeira brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cachoeira throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Maverick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Maverick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miranda Maverick over Priscila Cachoeira. The model is firm on this one: Maverick at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Maverick at 72% implied while our model sees 79% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.