UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
Saturday, July 22, 2023·London, England, United Kingdom
Model Record: 7/15Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✓
Tom Aspinall won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aspinall 73%27% Tybura
CONFIDENTMarket: 81% (-8.0% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -8(favors Tybura)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Aspinall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Aspinall)
Women's Flyweight✗
Julija Stoliarenko won by Submission (R1)
Stoliarenko 35%65% McCann
LEANMarket: 34% (+1.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -300(favors McCann)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors McCann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors McCann)
Featherweight✓
Nathaniel Wood won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wood 68%32% Fili
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+2.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +161(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Fili)
Middleweight✗
Paul Craig won by KO/TKO (R2)
Craig 30%70% Muniz
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-2.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -175(favors Muniz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Craig)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Muniz)
Lightweight✓
Fares Ziam won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ziam 64%36% Herbert
LEANMarket: 60% (+4.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +29(favors Ziam)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Herbert)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Ziam)
Featherweight✗
Lerone Murphy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Murphy 48%52% Culibao
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +109(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Murphy)
Bantamweight✗
Daniel Marcos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Marcos 49%51% Grant
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-8.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -219(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Marcos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Grant)
Welterweight✗
Jonny Parsons won by KO/TKO (R2)
Parsons 40%60% Roberts
LEANMarket: 43% (-3.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -53(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Roberts)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Roberts)
Lightweight✗
Joel Alvarez won by Submission (R2)
Alvarez 50%50% Diakiese
TOSS-UPMarket: 65% (-15.5% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +243(favors Alvarez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Alvarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.6(favors Diakiese)
Heavyweight✗
Mick Parkin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Parkin 40%60% Pogues
LEAN
→Elo gap: -75(favors Pogues)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Pogues)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.0(favors Pogues)
Middleweight✓
Makhmud Muradov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Muradov 78%22% Barberena
STRONGMarket: 75% (+3.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -125(favors Barberena)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Muradov)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Ketlen Vieira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vieira 66%34% Kianzad
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+7.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +86(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Kianzad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Vieira)
Lightweight✗
Chris Duncan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Duncan 31%69% Ashmouz
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -84(favors Ashmouz)
→Striking volume advantage: -8.5(favors Ashmouz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.0(favors Ashmouz)
Women's Strawweight✓
Bruna Brasil won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brasil 55%45% Bannon
LEANMarket: 57% (-1.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -159(favors Bannon)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Brasil)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bannon)
Flyweight✓
Jafel Filho won by Submission (R1)
Filho 55%45% Barez
LEANMarket: 51% (+4.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -42(favors Barez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Filho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Barez)