UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Tom Aspinall (8-1) taking on Marcin Tybura (14-8).

Aspinall is rated at 1917 — 675 points above Tybura's 1242. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Aspinall rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Aspinall's submission artist game against Tybura's striker approach. Aspinall is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Tybura brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aspinall throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Aspinall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Aspinall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Aspinall over Marcin Tybura.** We're leaning Aspinall here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 81% for Aspinall, but our model sees only 73%. That 8-point gap favoring Tybura is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Julija Stoliarenko (2-6) taking on Molly McCann (7-6). Stoliarenko is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Stoliarenko at 842, McCann at 834. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Stoliarenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McCann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stoliarenko the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCann throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. McCann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. McCann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Molly McCann over Julija Stoliarenko.** The model gives McCann a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (9-3) taking on Andre Fili (12-11). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Wood is rated at 1389 — 250 points above Fili's 1140. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Wood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nathaniel Wood over Andre Fili.** We're leaning Wood here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Paul Craig (9-9-1) taking on Andre Muniz (6-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Craig at 1045, Muniz at 1034. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Muniz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Muniz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andre Muniz over Paul Craig.** We're leaning Muniz here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Fares Ziam (7-2) taking on Jai Herbert (3-4-1).

Ziam is rated at 1556 — 542 points above Herbert's 1014. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ziam rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herbert throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ziam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Ziam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fares Ziam over Jai Herbert.** The model gives Ziam a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ziam at 60% implied while our model sees 64% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Lerone Murphy (8-0-1) taking on Josh Culibao (3-3-1).

Murphy is rated at 1654 — 683 points above Culibao's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murphy rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Murphy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Culibao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Culibao over Lerone Murphy.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Culibao at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Daniel Marcos (4-1) taking on Davey Grant (8-6).

Marcos is rated at 1352 — 152 points above Grant's 1200. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Marcos's striker game against Grant's all-rounder approach. Marcos brings a versatile approach, while Grant is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marcos throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Marcos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Davey Grant over Daniel Marcos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grant at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Marcos, but our model sees only 49%. That 8-point gap favoring Grant is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Jonny Parsons (0-0) taking on Danny Roberts (7-6). Roberts is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Parsons is rated at 1147 — 241 points above Roberts's 906. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Parsons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danny Roberts over Jonny Parsons.** The model gives Roberts a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 43% for Parsons, but our model sees only 40%. That 3-point gap favoring Roberts is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Joel Alvarez (7-2) taking on Marc Diakiese (7-7). Alvarez is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Alvarez is rated at 1564 — 514 points above Diakiese's 1050. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Alvarez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Alvarez's submission artist game against Diakiese's striker approach. Alvarez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Diakiese brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvarez throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Diakiese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Joel Alvarez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Diakiese at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 65% for Alvarez, but our model sees only 50%. That 15-point gap favoring Diakiese is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mick Parkin (4-0) taking on Jamal Pogues (2-1).

Parkin is rated at 1239 — 256 points above Pogues's 983. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Parkin rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pogues throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pogues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Parkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jamal Pogues over Mick Parkin.** The model gives Pogues a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Makhmud Muradov (4-2) taking on Bryan Barberena (9-9). Muradov is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Muradov is rated at 1179 — 219 points above Barberena's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Muradov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Muradov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Makhmud Muradov over Bryan Barberena.** The model is firm on this one: Muradov at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Muradov at 75% implied while our model sees 78% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ketlen Vieira (9-4) taking on Pannie Kianzad (5-5).

Vieira is rated at 1294 — 350 points above Kianzad's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vieira's all-rounder game against Kianzad's striker approach. Vieira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kianzad brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kianzad throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Kianzad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ketlen Vieira over Pannie Kianzad.** We're leaning Vieira here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Vieira at 59% implied while our model sees 66% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Duncan (5-1) taking on Yanal Ashmouz (2-1).

Duncan is rated at 1375 — 362 points above Ashmouz's 1013. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Duncan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ashmouz throws significantly more leather — a 8.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ashmouz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.0 more per 15 minutes. Ashmouz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yanal Ashmouz over Chris Duncan.** We're leaning Ashmouz here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Bruna Brasil (3-3) taking on Shauna Bannon (2-1).

Bannon carries a modest Elo edge (1003 to 959), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brasil throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bannon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bannon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bruna Brasil over Shauna Bannon.** The model gives Brasil a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Jafel Filho (2-2) taking on Daniel Barez (1-1).

Filho is rated at 1193 — 277 points above Barez's 916. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Filho throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Barez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Barez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jafel Filho over Daniel Barez.** The model gives Filho a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Filho at 51% implied while our model sees 55% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.