UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Saturday, June 17, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 7/11(64%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightMISS
Jared Cannonier won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Cannonier 36%64% Vettori
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
LEANMarket: 45% (-9.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +119(favors Cannonier)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Cannonier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Vettori)
LightweightHIT
Arman Tsarukyan won by KO/TKO (R3)
Tsarukyan 90%10% Silva
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 90% (+0.0% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +592(favors Tsarukyan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Tsarukyan)
MiddleweightMISS
Armen Petrosyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Petrosyan 35%65% Duncan
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (-6.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -103(favors Duncan)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Petrosyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Duncan)
FeatherweightHIT
Pat Sabatini won by Submission (R2)
Sabatini 59%41% Almeida
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 63% (-4.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -50(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.8(favors Sabatini)
LightweightHIT
Manuel Torres won by KO/TKO (R1)
Torres 56%44% Motta
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 64% (-8.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -9(favors Motta)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors Torres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Motta)
WelterweightMISS
Nicolas Dalby won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dalby 49%51% Salikhov
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+11.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -144(favors Salikhov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Dalby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Salikhov)
Prelims
FlyweightHIT
Alessandro Costa won by KO/TKO (R2)
Costa 71%29% Flick
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-1.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +39(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Flick)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Flick)
BantamweightMISS
Kyung Ho Kang won by Submission (R1)
Kang 41%59% Quinonez
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +137(favors Kang)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Quinonez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Kang)
FlyweightHIT
Carlos Hernandez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hernandez 53%47% Bondar
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+11.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +135(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -9.3(favors Bondar)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Tereza Bleda won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bleda 76%24% Fernandes
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONGMarket: 68% (+7.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +41(favors Bleda)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Fernandes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Bleda)
Bantamweight
Argueta 52%48% Lawrence
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+15.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -320(favors Lawrence)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Lawrence)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Lawrence)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Modestas Bukauskas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bukauskas 65%35% Pauga
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEANMarket: 64% (+0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -23(favors Pauga)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Pauga)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pauga)