UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Jared Cannonier (11-8) taking on Marvin Vettori (9-7-1). Cannonier will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cannonier at 1426 versus Vettori at 1280. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cannonier's striker game against Vettori's all-rounder approach. Cannonier brings a versatile approach, while Vettori is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Vettori is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Cannonier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marvin Vettori over Jared Cannonier.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vettori at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Arman Tsarukyan (9-2) taking on Joaquim Silva (6-5). Tsarukyan will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tsarukyan is rated at 1836 — 697 points above Silva's 1139. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Tsarukyan rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Tsarukyan brings a versatile approach, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tsarukyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Tsarukyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan over Joaquim Silva.** The model is firm on this one: Tsarukyan at 92%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Armen Petrosyan (3-3) taking on Christian Leroy Duncan (5-2). Duncan will look to use a 8-inch reach edge to control distance.

Duncan is rated at 1424 — 515 points above Petrosyan's 910. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petrosyan throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Duncan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Petrosyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan over Armen Petrosyan.** The model gives Duncan a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Pat Sabatini (7-2) taking on Lucas Almeida (2-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Almeida.

Sabatini is rated at 1425 — 619 points above Almeida's 806. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sabatini's wrestler game against Almeida's striker approach. Sabatini looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Almeida brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sabatini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Sabatini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pat Sabatini over Lucas Almeida.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sabatini at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Sabatini, but our model sees only 54%. That 9-point gap favoring Almeida is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Manuel Torres (4-1) taking on Nikolas Motta (3-2). Torres will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Torres is rated at 1482 — 410 points above Motta's 1072. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Torres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Motta brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Torres the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torres throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Motta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Motta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Manuel Torres over Nikolas Motta.** The model gives Torres a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Torres, but our model sees only 59%. That 5-point gap favoring Motta is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1) taking on Muslim Salikhov (9-4). Dalby will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dalby at 1283 versus Salikhov at 1183. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Salikhov has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Dalby's all-rounder game against Salikhov's striker approach. Dalby is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Salikhov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dalby throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Salikhov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Salikhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Muslim Salikhov over Nicolas Dalby.** The model gives Salikhov a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Alessandro Costa (2-2) taking on Jimmy Flick (2-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Flick.

There's a real Elo separation here: Costa at 934 versus Flick at 818. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Flick throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Flick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alessandro Costa over Jimmy Flick.** We're leaning Costa here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyung Ho Kang (8-4) taking on Cristian Quinonez (1-1). Kang will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kang at 1029 versus Quinonez at 915. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quinonez throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Quinonez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cristian Quinonez over Kyung Ho Kang.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Quinonez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Carlos Hernandez (3-3) taking on Denys Bondar (0-2).

Hernandez is rated at 913 — 176 points above Bondar's 738. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Bondar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.3 more per 15 minutes. Bondar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlos Hernandez over Denys Bondar.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hernandez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Hernandez at 42% implied while our model sees 51% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Tereza Bleda (1-1) taking on Gabriella Fernandes (2-2). Bleda is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Fernandes is rated at 1122 — 221 points above Bleda's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fernandes throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Bleda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Fernandes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tereza Bleda over Gabriella Fernandes.** We're leaning Bleda here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Dan Argueta (1-2) taking on Ronnie Lawrence (2-1).

Lawrence is rated at 1079 — 220 points above Argueta's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawrence throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawrence is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Lawrence has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ronnie Lawrence over Dan Argueta.** We're leaning Lawrence here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 36% for Argueta, but our model sees only 32%. That 4-point gap favoring Lawrence is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Modestas Bukauskas (7-4) taking on Zac Pauga (1-2).

Bukauskas is rated at 1168 — 405 points above Pauga's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bukauskas rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pauga throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pauga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pauga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas over Zac Pauga.** The model gives Bukauskas a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Bukauskas, but our model sees only 60%. That 5-point gap favoring Pauga is worth watching.