UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
Saturday, June 3, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·13 fights
Model: 8/13(62%)
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Main Card
FlyweightHIT
Amir Albazi won by Decision - Split (R5)
Albazi 55%45% Kara-France
Over/UnderOver 73%
Under 27%Over 73%
LEANMarket: 53% (+1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -73(favors Kara-France)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Kara-France)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Albazi)
FeatherweightHIT
Alex Caceres won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Caceres 73%27% Pineda
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+8.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +211(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Pineda)
LightweightHIT
Jim Miller won by KO/TKO (R1)
Miller 76%24% Butler
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+6.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +288(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Miller)
FlyweightMISS
Tim Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elliott 40%60% Altamirano
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 62% (-21.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -8(favors Altamirano)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Altamirano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Elliott)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Karine Silva won by Submission (R1)
Silva 58%42% Souza
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 66% (-7.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Silva)
WelterweightMISS
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Santos 36%64% Nurmagomedov
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 46% (-9.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +361(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Nurmagomedov)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Daniel Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 52%48% Munoz
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UPMarket: 66% (-13.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +237(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Munoz)
HeavyweightHIT
Don'Tale Mayes won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mayes 67%33% Arlovski
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+12.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -198(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Arlovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Mayes)
BantamweightMISS
John Castaneda won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Castaneda 47%53% Gafurov
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-6.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +60(favors Castaneda)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.2(favors Castaneda)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Castaneda)
LightweightMISS
Muhammad Naimov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Naimov 26%74% Mullarkey
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -267(favors Mullarkey)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.7(favors Mullarkey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Mullarkey)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Elise Reed won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Reed 51%49% Frey
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-4.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +64(favors Reed)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Frey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Reed)
BantamweightHIT
Da'Mon Blackshear won by KO/TKO (R2)
Blackshear 52%48% Lacerda
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -101(favors Lacerda)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Lacerda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lacerda)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Philipe Lins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lins 47%53% Grishin
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +85(favors Lins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Lins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Lins)