UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
Saturday, June 3, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Flyweight✗
Amir Albazi won by Decision - Split (R5)
Albazi 49%51% Kara-France
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-4.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -66(favors Kara-France)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Kara-France)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Albazi)
Featherweight✓
Alex Caceres won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Caceres 74%26% Pineda
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+9.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +266(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Pineda)
Lightweight✓
Jim Miller won by KO/TKO (R1)
Miller 70%30% Butler
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +192(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Miller)
Flyweight✓
Tim Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elliott 52%48% Altamirano
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-10.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +20(favors Elliott)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Altamirano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Elliott)
Women's Flyweight✓
Karine Silva won by Submission (R1)
Silva 58%42% Souza
LEANMarket: 66% (-7.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +97(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Silva)
Welterweight✗
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Santos 36%64% Nurmagomedov
LEANMarket: 46% (-10.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +278(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Nurmagomedov)
Bantamweight✗
Daniel Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 45%55% Munoz
TOSS-UPMarket: 66% (-21.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +142(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Munoz)
Heavyweight✓
Don'Tale Mayes won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mayes 56%44% Arlovski
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -170(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Arlovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Mayes)
Bantamweight✗
John Castaneda won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Castaneda 47%53% Gafurov
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-6.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +40(favors Castaneda)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.2(favors Castaneda)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Castaneda)
Lightweight✗
Muhammad Naimov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Naimov 30%70% Mullarkey
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -199(favors Mullarkey)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.7(favors Mullarkey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Mullarkey)
Women's Strawweight✓
Elise Reed won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Reed 55%45% Frey
LEANMarket: 55% (+0.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +46(favors Reed)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Frey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Reed)
Bantamweight✓
Da'Mon Blackshear won by KO/TKO (R2)
Blackshear 62%38% Lacerda
LEAN
→Elo gap: -50(favors Lacerda)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Lacerda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lacerda)
Light Heavyweight✗
Philipe Lins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lins 43%57% Grishin
LEANMarket: 45% (-2.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +25(favors Lins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Lins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Lins)