UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Amir Albazi (5-1) taking on Kai Kara-France (8-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kara-France at 1351 versus Albazi at 1267. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Albazi's all-rounder game against Kara-France's striker approach. Albazi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kara-France brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kara-France throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Albazi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Albazi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kai Kara-France over Amir Albazi.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kara-France at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 53% for Albazi, but our model sees only 49%. That 5-point gap favoring Kara-France is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Daniel Pineda (5-7). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 253 points above Pineda's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Caceres's knockout artist game against Pineda's wrestler approach. Caceres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Pineda looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pineda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Caceres over Daniel Pineda.** We're leaning Caceres here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Caceres at 64% implied while our model sees 74% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Jesse Butler (0-1). Butler is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Miller is rated at 1213 — 365 points above Butler's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Butler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jim Miller over Jesse Butler.** We're leaning Miller here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Tim Elliott (9-11) taking on Victor Altamirano (2-3). Altamirano will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Elliott is rated at 1241 — 404 points above Altamirano's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Elliott's wrestler game against Altamirano's striker approach. Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Altamirano brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Altamirano throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Altamirano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Elliott over Victor Altamirano.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elliott at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Elliott, but our model sees only 52%. That 11-point gap favoring Altamirano is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Karine Silva (5-1) taking on Ketlen Souza (2-3). Silva is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1237 versus Souza at 1116. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Souza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karine Silva over Ketlen Souza.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Silva, but our model sees only 58%. That 8-point gap favoring Souza is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1) taking on Abubakar Nurmagomedov (2-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Santos at 1041, Nurmagomedov at 1015. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Abubakar Nurmagomedov over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.** The model gives Nurmagomedov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Santos, but our model sees only 36%. That 10-point gap favoring Nurmagomedov is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Daniel Santos (3-1) taking on Johnny Munoz (2-3). Munoz is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Santos is rated at 1320 — 440 points above Munoz's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Santos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Johnny Munoz over Daniel Santos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Munoz at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 66% for Santos, but our model sees only 45%. That 21-point gap favoring Munoz is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Don'Tale Mayes (4-6) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17). Mayes is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Mayes at 849, Arlovski at 858. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Mayes's striker game against Arlovski's all-rounder approach. Mayes brings a versatile approach, while Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mayes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Don'Tale Mayes over Andrei Arlovski.** The model gives Mayes a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Castaneda (4-3) taking on Muin Gafurov (2-2). Castaneda will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Castaneda at 1117 versus Gafurov at 1026. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castaneda throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Castaneda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Gafurov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Muin Gafurov over John Castaneda.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gafurov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 53% for Castaneda, but our model sees only 47%. That 7-point gap favoring Gafurov is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Muhammad Naimov (5-1) taking on Jamie Mullarkey (6-6). Mullarkey is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Naimov is rated at 1112 — 165 points above Mullarkey's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Naimov's wrestler game against Mullarkey's striker approach. Naimov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Mullarkey brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mullarkey throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullarkey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Naimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jamie Mullarkey over Muhammad Naimov.** We're leaning Mullarkey here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Elise Reed (4-4) taking on Jinh Yu Frey (2-5).

Reed is rated at 933 — 203 points above Frey's 730. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Reed's striker game against Frey's all-rounder approach. Reed brings a versatile approach, while Frey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frey throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Reed is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Frey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Elise Reed over Jinh Yu Frey.** The model gives Reed a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Da'Mon Blackshear (5-3-1) taking on Luan Lacerda (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Blackshear.

Blackshear is rated at 1216 — 315 points above Lacerda's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Blackshear rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lacerda throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lacerda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Blackshear has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Da'Mon Blackshear over Luan Lacerda.** The model gives Blackshear a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Philipe Lins (3-2) taking on Maxim Grishin (2-2).

Lins is rated at 1256 — 247 points above Grishin's 1009. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lins rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lins throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Grishin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Maxim Grishin over Philipe Lins.** The model gives Grishin a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.