UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Saturday, May 6, 2023·Newark, New Jersey, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightHIT
Aljamain Sterling won by Decision - Split (R5)
Sterling 59%41% Cejudo
LEANMarket: 48% (+10.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors Cejudo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Cejudo)
WelterweightMISS
Belal Muhammad won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Muhammad 40%60% Burns
LEANMarket: 42% (-1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Muhammad)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Muhammad)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Yan Xiaonan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Xiaonan 48%52% Andrade
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+9.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -96(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.7(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Xiaonan)
FeatherweightHIT
Movsar Evloev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Evloev 85%15% Lopes
STRONGMarket: 87% (-2.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +476(favors Evloev)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Evloev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Evloev)
FeatherweightHIT
Charles Jourdain won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jourdain 69%31% Gracie
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+9.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +12(favors Jourdain)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Jourdain)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Gracie)
LightweightMISS
Matt Frevola won by KO/TKO (R1)
Frevola 32%68% Dober
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-0.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -243(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Frevola)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Kennedy Nzechukwu won by Submission (R2)
Nzechukwu 69%31% Clark
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+7.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +39(favors Nzechukwu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Nzechukwu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Nzechukwu)
WelterweightHIT
Khaos Williams won by Decision - Split (R3)
Williams 51%49% Bedoya
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +339(favors Williams)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Williams)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bedoya)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Virna Jandiroba won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jandiroba 43%57% Rodriguez
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -124(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Jandiroba)
HeavyweightHIT
Parker Porter won by KO/TKO (R1)
Porter 60%40% Smith
LEANMarket: 61% (-0.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -126(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.4(favors Porter)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Porter)
MiddleweightMISS
Ikram Aliskerov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aliskerov 41%59% Hawes
LEANMarket: 63% (-22.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -66(favors Hawes)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.7(favors Hawes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Hawes)
MiddleweightHIT
Claudio Ribeiro won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ribeiro 50%50% Holmes
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-10.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +11(favors Ribeiro)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Holmes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Holmes)