UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Henry Cejudo (10-5). Sterling is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 268 points above Cejudo's 1416. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sterling throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cejudo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Cejudo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Henry Cejudo. The model gives Sterling a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sterling at 48% implied while our model sees 59% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight championship matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Gilbert Burns (15-8).

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 368 points above Burns's 1379. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Muhammad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Belal Muhammad. The model gives Burns a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yan Xiaonan (9-3) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-12). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Xiaonan.

Xiaonan is rated at 1412 — 297 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Xiaonan's striker game against Andrade's all-rounder approach. Xiaonan brings a versatile approach, while Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Xiaonan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Yan Xiaonan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Andrade at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Xiaonan at 39% implied while our model sees 48% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Movsar Evloev (8-0) taking on Diego Lopes (6-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Lopes.

There's a real Elo separation here: Evloev at 1715 versus Lopes at 1614. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Evloev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Evloev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lopes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Evloev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evloev throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Evloev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Lopes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Movsar Evloev over Diego Lopes. The model is firm on this one: Evloev at 85%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Jourdain (7-7-1) taking on Kron Gracie (1-2).

Jourdain is rated at 1354 — 412 points above Gracie's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jourdain throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gracie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Jourdain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Jourdain over Kron Gracie. We're leaning Jourdain here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Jourdain at 60% implied while our model sees 69% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Frevola (5-5-1) taking on Drew Dober (13-11).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Frevola at 1093, Dober at 1083. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Frevola's striker game against Dober's all-rounder approach. Frevola brings a versatile approach, while Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Frevola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Frevola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drew Dober over Matt Frevola. We're leaning Dober here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6) taking on Devin Clark (8-8). Nzechukwu is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nzechukwu at 1071 versus Clark at 944. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Nzechukwu's all-rounder game against Clark's striker approach. Nzechukwu is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Clark brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nzechukwu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nzechukwu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Devin Clark. We're leaning Nzechukwu here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Nzechukwu at 62% implied while our model sees 69% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Khaos Williams (6-3) taking on Rolando Bedoya (0-3). Williams will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Williams is rated at 1159 — 395 points above Bedoya's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bedoya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bedoya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khaos Williams over Rolando Bedoya. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Williams at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Virna Jandiroba (8-3) taking on Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rodriguez.

Jandiroba is rated at 1457 — 398 points above Rodriguez's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jandiroba rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jandiroba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jandiroba the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marina Rodriguez over Virna Jandiroba. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Parker Porter (4-3) taking on Braxton Smith (0-0). Porter will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Porter carries a modest Elo edge (883 to 828), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Porter throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Porter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Parker Porter over Braxton Smith. The model gives Porter a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Ikram Aliskerov (3-1) taking on Phil Hawes (4-3).

Aliskerov is rated at 1439 — 613 points above Hawes's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hawes throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hawes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Aliskerov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Hawes over Ikram Aliskerov. The model gives Hawes a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Aliskerov, but our model sees only 41%. That 22-point gap favoring Hawes is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Claudio Ribeiro (1-2) taking on Joseph Holmes (1-2). Holmes is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ribeiro at 875 versus Holmes at 760. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holmes throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Holmes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Holmes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudio Ribeiro over Joseph Holmes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ribeiro at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Ribeiro, but our model sees only 50%. That 10-point gap favoring Holmes is worth watching.