UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
Saturday, April 29, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 5/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Bantamweight✗
Song Yadong won by KO/TKO (R5)
Yadong 41%59% Simon
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Simon)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Yadong)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.1(favors Simon)
Middleweight✓
Caio Borralho won by Submission (R2)
Borralho 75%25% Oleksiejczuk
STRONGMarket: 76% (-1.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -19(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Borralho)
Middleweight✓
Rodolfo Vieira won by Submission (R2)
Vieira 71%29% Brundage
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+3.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +54(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Vieira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Vieira)
Featherweight✗
Fernando Padilla won by KO/TKO (R1)
Padilla 37%63% Erosa
LEANMarket: 41% (-3.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -146(favors Erosa)
→Striking volume advantage: -7.8(favors Erosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Erosa)
Heavyweight✓
Marcos Rogerio de Lima won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lima 55%45% Acosta
LEANMarket: 61% (-5.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +227(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Acosta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Lima)
Welterweight✗
Trey Waters won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Waters 31%69% Quinlan
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (-1.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -100(favors Quinlan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Quinlan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Quinlan)
Heavyweight✓
Martin Buday won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Buday 59%41% Collier
LEANMarket: 57% (+2.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +303(favors Buday)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Collier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Collier)
Flyweight✗
Cody Durden won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Durden 48%52% Johnson
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+3.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Durden)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Durden)
Women's Bantamweight✗
Irina Alekseeva won by Submission (R1)
Alekseeva 19%81% Egger
STRONGMarket: 21% (-1.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -144(favors Egger)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Egger)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Egger)
Catch Weight✓
Marcus McGhee won by Submission (R2)
McGhee 52%48% Newson
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+10.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +108(favors McGhee)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Newson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Newson)
Women's Bantamweight✗
Jamey-Lyn Horth won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Horth 47%53% Cowan
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Cowan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Cowan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cowan)