UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Song Yadong (11-3-1) taking on Ricky Simon (10-5).

Yadong is rated at 1548 — 324 points above Simon's 1223. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Yadong is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Simon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Simon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yadong throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Yadong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricky Simon over Song Yadong.** The model gives Simon a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Caio Borralho (7-0) taking on Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7).

Borralho is rated at 1570 — 302 points above Oleksiejczuk's 1268. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Borralho rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Borralho's all-rounder game against Oleksiejczuk's striker approach. Borralho is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oleksiejczuk brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Borralho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Caio Borralho over Michal Oleksiejczuk.** The model is firm on this one: Borralho at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Rodolfo Vieira (6-3) taking on Cody Brundage (5-6).

Vieira is rated at 1069 — 199 points above Brundage's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Vieira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brundage is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Vieira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vieira throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Brundage has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rodolfo Vieira over Cody Brundage.** We're leaning Vieira here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Vieira at 68% implied while our model sees 71% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Fernando Padilla (2-1) taking on Julian Erosa (9-7).

Erosa is rated at 1280 — 198 points above Padilla's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Erosa has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 7.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Padilla has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julian Erosa over Fernando Padilla.** The model gives Erosa a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 41% for Padilla, but our model sees only 37%. That 4-point gap favoring Erosa is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7) taking on Waldo Cortes Acosta (9-2). Acosta is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Acosta is rated at 1637 — 361 points above Lima's 1275. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lima's wrestler game against Acosta's striker approach. Lima looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Acosta brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Acosta throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Acosta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Waldo Cortes Acosta.** The model gives Lima a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Lima, but our model sees only 55%. That 6-point gap favoring Acosta is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Trey Waters (2-0) taking on Josh Quinlan (1-2). Waters is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Waters is rated at 1075 — 250 points above Quinlan's 825. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quinlan throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinlan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Waters has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Quinlan over Trey Waters.** We're leaning Quinlan here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Martin Buday (6-1) taking on Jake Collier (5-8).

Buday is rated at 1183 — 389 points above Collier's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collier throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Collier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Buday has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Martin Buday over Jake Collier.** The model gives Buday a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Cody Durden (6-6-1) taking on Charles Johnson (7-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1097 — 251 points above Durden's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Johnson over Cody Durden.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Durden at 44% implied while our model sees 48% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Irina Alekseeva (1-2) taking on Stephanie Egger (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Egger at 936 versus Alekseeva at 828. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Egger throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Egger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Alekseeva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stephanie Egger over Irina Alekseeva.** The model is firm on this one: Egger at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Catch Weight matchup features Marcus McGhee (4-0) taking on Journey Newson (1-3). McGhee is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

McGhee is rated at 1329 — 514 points above Newson's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. McGhee rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Newson throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Newson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. McGhee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcus McGhee over Journey Newson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McGhee at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has McGhee at 41% implied while our model sees 52% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jamey-Lyn Horth (3-2) taking on Hailey Cowan (0-1).

Horth is rated at 1183 — 313 points above Cowan's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cowan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cowan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cowan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hailey Cowan over Jamey-Lyn Horth.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cowan at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.