UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Reinier de Ridder (4-0). Ridder is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Allen is rated at 1696 — 264 points above Ridder's 1433. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ridder has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Allen throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ridder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ridder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brendan Allen over Reinier de Ridder.** The model gives Allen a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Malott (5-1) taking on Kevin Holland (15-11). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Malott is rated at 1410 — 154 points above Holland's 1257. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Malott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Malott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Malott over Kevin Holland.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Malott at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aiemann Zahabi (7-2) taking on Marlon Vera (15-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Zahabi at 1586 versus Vera at 1460. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Zahabi rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Zahabi's striker game against Vera's all-rounder approach. Zahabi brings a versatile approach, while Vera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zahabi throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Zahabi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aiemann Zahabi over Marlon Vera.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Zahabi at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Manon Fiorot (7-1) taking on Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2). Jasudavicius will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fiorot is rated at 1641 — 283 points above Jasudavicius's 1358. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jasudavicius has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Fiorot's striker game against Jasudavicius's wrestler approach. Fiorot brings a versatile approach, while Jasudavicius looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiorot throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jasudavicius is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Fiorot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Manon Fiorot over Jasmine Jasudavicius.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fiorot at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Charles Jourdain (7-7-1) taking on Davey Grant (8-6).

Jourdain is rated at 1354 — 154 points above Grant's 1200. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jourdain looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Grant is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jourdain the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jourdain is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Jourdain over Davey Grant.** The model gives Jourdain a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Kyle Nelson (4-5-1) taking on Matt Frevola (5-5-1).

Nelson is rated at 1271 — 177 points above Frevola's 1093. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nelson brings a versatile approach, while Frevola is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Frevola the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frevola throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Frevola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyle Nelson over Matt Frevola.** The model gives Nelson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on Kyle Prepolec (0-3).

Dober is rated at 1083 — 309 points above Prepolec's 773. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Prepolec has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Drew Dober over Kyle Prepolec.** The model gives Dober a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aoriqileng (3-4) taking on Cody Gibson (3-6). Gibson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Aoriqileng is rated at 1106 — 263 points above Gibson's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Aoriqileng's striker game against Gibson's wrestler approach. Aoriqileng brings a versatile approach, while Gibson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gibson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gibson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Gibson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Gibson over Aoriqileng.** The model gives Gibson a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Bruno Silva (4-4) taking on HyunSung Park (3-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Park.

Silva is rated at 1203 — 193 points above Park's 1010. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Park has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: HyunSung Park over Bruno Silva.** The model gives Park a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Djorden Santos (0-1) taking on Danny Barlow (2-1). Barlow is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Santos at 1006 versus Barlow at 895. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Barlow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danny Barlow over Djorden Santos.** The model gives Barlow a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Stephanie Luciano (1-1) taking on Ravena Oliveira (0-1).

Luciano is rated at 1105 — 257 points above Oliveira's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luciano throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Luciano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stephanie Luciano over Ravena Oliveira.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Luciano at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Yousri Belgaroui (0-0) taking on Azamat Bekoev (2-0). Belgaroui is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Belgaroui is rated at 1210 — 153 points above Bekoev's 1057. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bekoev throws significantly more leather — a 7.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bekoev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Belgaroui has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Azamat Bekoev over Yousri Belgaroui.** We're leaning Bekoev here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Melissa Croden (1-0) taking on Tainara Lisboa (2-1).

Croden is rated at 1064 — 188 points above Lisboa's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lisboa throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lisboa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Croden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tainara Lisboa over Melissa Croden.** The model gives Lisboa a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.