UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Saturday, April 8, 2023·Miami, Florida, USA·12 fights
Model: 7/12(58%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightMISS
Israel Adesanya won by KO/TKO (R2)
Adesanya 45%55% Pereira
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-10.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -133(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Pereira)
WelterweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Burns 88%12% Masvidal
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+9.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +74(favors Burns)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Burns)
BantamweightMISS
Rob Font won by KO/TKO (R1)
Font 40%60% Yanez
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 38% (+1.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +29(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Font)
WelterweightHIT
Kevin Holland won by KO/TKO (R3)
Holland 75%25% Ponzinibbio
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+6.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -162(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Holland)
BantamweightHIT
Christian Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 52%48% Jr.
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +74(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -9.4(favors Jr.)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Kelvin Gastelum won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gastelum 56%44% Curtis
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 54% (+1.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Gastelum)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Luana Pinheiro won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pinheiro 58%42% Waterson-Gomez
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -91(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Pinheiro)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Pinheiro)
MiddleweightMISS
Joe Pyfer won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pyfer 46%54% Meerschaert
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
TOSS-UPMarket: 64% (-18.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -265(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Pyfer)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Meerschaert)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Loopy Godinez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Godinez 57%43% Calvillo
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +59(favors Godinez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Calvillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Godinez)
Early Prelims
Catch WeightHIT
Ignacio Bahamondes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bahamondes 82%18% Ogden
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+4.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +257(favors Bahamondes)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Bahamondes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Ogden)
FeatherweightMISS
Steve Garcia won by KO/TKO (R2)
Garcia 49%51% Nuerdanbieke
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+11.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -55(favors Nuerdanbieke)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Garcia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Nuerdanbieke)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Sam Hughes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hughes 24%76% Amorim
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 31% (-7.0% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -15(favors Amorim)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Hughes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Hughes)