UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-4) taking on Alex Pereira (9-2).

Pereira is rated at 2004 — 445 points above Adesanya's 1559. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Adesanya's striker game against Pereira's all-rounder approach. Adesanya brings a versatile approach, while Pereira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pereira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Pereira over Israel Adesanya. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pereira at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Adesanya, but our model sees only 47%. That 9-point gap favoring Pereira is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Jorge Masvidal (12-9). Masvidal will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Masvidal is rated at 1579 — 200 points above Burns's 1379. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Burns's all-rounder game against Masvidal's knockout artist approach. Burns is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Masvidal is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Burns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Jorge Masvidal. The model is firm on this one: Burns at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Burns at 79% implied while our model sees 87% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-7) taking on Adrian Yanez (6-2).

Font is rated at 1361 — 158 points above Yanez's 1203. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Font's all-rounder game against Yanez's striker approach. Font is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Yanez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Font is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Yanez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adrian Yanez over Rob Font. The model gives Yanez a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Holland carries a modest Elo edge (1257 to 1177), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Holland's all-rounder game against Ponzinibbio's striker approach. Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Santiago Ponzinibbio. We're leaning Holland here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Christian Rodriguez (5-3) taking on Raul Rosas Jr. (4-1). Rodriguez will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jr. is rated at 1251 — 210 points above Rodriguez's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jr. has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.4 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Rodriguez over Raul Rosas Jr.. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Chris Curtis (5-4). Curtis will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gastelum at 1340 versus Curtis at 1258. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Gastelum's all-rounder game against Curtis's striker approach. Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Curtis brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curtis throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gastelum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Curtis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Chris Curtis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gastelum at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Luana Pinheiro (3-3) taking on Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pinheiro at 914, Waterson-Gomez at 908. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pinheiro throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pinheiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Pinheiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Pinheiro over Michelle Waterson-Gomez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pinheiro at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Joe Pyfer (5-1) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12).

Pyfer is rated at 1530 — 663 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pyfer is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Meerschaert the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pyfer throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Pyfer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Pyfer over Gerald Meerschaert. The model gives Pyfer a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loopy Godinez (8-5) taking on Cynthia Calvillo (6-5-1). Calvillo is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Godinez is rated at 1260 — 349 points above Calvillo's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Godinez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Calvillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Godinez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Calvillo throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Godinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Calvillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loopy Godinez over Cynthia Calvillo. The model gives Godinez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Ignacio Bahamondes (6-2) taking on Trey Ogden (3-2). Bahamondes is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Bahamondes is rated at 1386 — 309 points above Ogden's 1077. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bahamondes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Bahamondes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ogden looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ogden the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bahamondes throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ogden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Ogden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes over Trey Ogden. The model is firm on this one: Bahamondes at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Bahamondes at 78% implied while our model sees 84% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Steve Garcia (7-2) taking on Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (3-2). Garcia is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Garcia is rated at 1593 — 703 points above Nuerdanbieke's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Garcia rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Garcia is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Nuerdanbieke brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Garcia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nuerdanbieke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Garcia over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. The model gives Garcia a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Sam Hughes (5-5) taking on Jaqueline Amorim (4-1). Amorim will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hughes carries a modest Elo edge (1232 to 1177), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Amorim has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Hughes's striker game against Amorim's submission artist approach. Hughes brings a versatile approach, while Amorim is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Amorim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jaqueline Amorim over Sam Hughes. The model is firm on this one: Amorim at 81%. The market implies 31% for Hughes, but our model sees only 19%. That 12-point gap favoring Amorim is worth watching.