UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
Saturday, March 25, 2023·San Antonio, Texas, USA
Model Record: 6/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightHIT
Cory Sandhagen won by Decision - Split (R5)
Sandhagen 62%38% Vera
LEANMarket: 57% (+4.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Sandhagen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Sandhagen)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Holly Holm won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holm 76%24% Santos
STRONGMarket: 68% (+7.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +182(favors Holm)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Holm)
FeatherweightHIT
Nate Landwehr won by Submission (R2)
Landwehr 58%42% Lingo
LEANMarket: 65% (-7.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +39(favors Landwehr)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Landwehr)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Landwehr)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Maycee Barber won by Decision - Split (R3)
Barber 77%23% Lee
STRONGMarket: 71% (+5.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +133(favors Barber)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Lee)
MiddleweightMISS
Albert Duraev won by Decision - Split (R3)
Duraev 46%54% Njokuani
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -135(favors Njokuani)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Njokuani)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Duraev)
FeatherweightMISS
Daniel Pineda won by Submission (R2)
Pineda 24%76% Lutz
STRONGMarket: 29% (-4.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -2(favors Lutz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Lutz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Lutz)
FeatherweightHIT
Lucas Alexander won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alexander 51%49% Peterson
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+9.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -102(favors Peterson)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.7(favors Peterson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Peterson)
WelterweightMISS
Trevin Giles won by Decision - Split (R3)
Giles 45%55% Parsons
LEANMarket: 48% (-2.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -47(favors Parsons)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Parsons)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Parsons)
FlyweightHIT
CJ Vergara won by KO/TKO (R2)
Vergara 55%45% Lacerda
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +178(favors Vergara)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Vergara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Lacerda)
FlyweightMISS
Victor Altamirano won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Altamirano 45%55% Salvador
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (-3.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +13(favors Altamirano)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.3(favors Altamirano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Altamirano)