UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-4) taking on Marlon Vera (15-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Sandhagen.

Sandhagen is rated at 1707 — 247 points above Vera's 1460. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sandhagen's all-rounder game against Vera's knockout artist approach. Sandhagen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Vera is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandhagen throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandhagen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sandhagen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over Marlon Vera. The model gives Sandhagen a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sandhagen at 57% implied while our model sees 62% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Holly Holm (8-6) taking on Yana Santos (6-5).

Santos is rated at 1304 — 177 points above Holm's 1127. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Holm's wrestler game against Santos's striker approach. Holm looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Santos brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Holm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Holly Holm over Yana Santos. The model is firm on this one: Holm at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Holm at 68% implied while our model sees 76% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Nate Landwehr (5-4) taking on Austin Lingo (2-2).

Landwehr carries a modest Elo edge (979 to 904), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Landwehr throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Landwehr is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Lingo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Landwehr over Austin Lingo. The model gives Landwehr a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Landwehr, but our model sees only 58%. That 8-point gap favoring Lingo is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maycee Barber (9-2) taking on Andrea Lee (5-8). Lee will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barber is rated at 1543 — 680 points above Lee's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barber rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maycee Barber over Andrea Lee. The model is firm on this one: Barber at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Barber at 71% implied while our model sees 77% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Albert Duraev (2-1) taking on Chidi Njokuani (5-4). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Njokuani at 1083 versus Duraev at 999. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Njokuani throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Duraev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Duraev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chidi Njokuani over Albert Duraev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Njokuani at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Duraev at 40% implied while our model sees 46% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Daniel Pineda (5-7) taking on Tucker Lutz (1-2). Lutz will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pineda at 979 versus Lutz at 852. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lutz throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lutz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Pineda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tucker Lutz over Daniel Pineda. The model is firm on this one: Lutz at 76%. The market implies 29% for Pineda, but our model sees only 24%. That 4-point gap favoring Lutz is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Lucas Alexander (1-2) taking on Steven Peterson (3-4). Alexander will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Peterson at 920 versus Alexander at 776. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peterson throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Peterson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Peterson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lucas Alexander over Steven Peterson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alexander at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Alexander at 41% implied while our model sees 51% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Trevin Giles (7-6) taking on Preston Parsons (2-3). Giles will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Giles at 845, Parsons at 867. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Giles is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Parsons looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Parsons the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parsons throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Parsons is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Giles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Preston Parsons over Trevin Giles. The model gives Parsons a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features CJ Vergara (3-4) taking on Daniel Lacerda (0-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Vergara at 766 versus Lacerda at 619. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vergara throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lacerda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Vergara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: CJ Vergara over Daniel Lacerda. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vergara at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Victor Altamirano (2-3) taking on Vinicius Salvador (0-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Altamirano at 837, Salvador at 820. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Altamirano throws significantly more leather — a 7.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Altamirano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Salvador has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vinicius Salvador over Victor Altamirano. The model gives Salvador a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Altamirano, but our model sees only 45%. That 4-point gap favoring Salvador is worth watching.