UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
Saturday, March 18, 2023·London, England, United Kingdom
Model Record: 7/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✗
Leon Edwards won by Decision - Majority (R5)
Edwards 30%70% Usman
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (+0.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +94(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Usman)
Lightweight✗
Justin Gaethje won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Gaethje 24%76% Fiziev
STRONGMarket: 31% (-6.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Gaethje)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Fiziev)
Welterweight✓
Gunnar Nelson won by Submission (R1)
Nelson 80%20% Barberena
STRONGMarket: 76% (+3.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +117(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Nelson)
Women's Flyweight✗
Jennifer Maia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Maia 38%62% O'Neill
LEANMarket: 39% (-1.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -70(favors O'Neill)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.7(favors O'Neill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors O'Neill)
Middleweight✓
Marvin Vettori won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vettori 83%17% Dolidze
STRONGMarket: 80% (+3.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +32(favors Vettori)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Vettori)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Vettori)
Featherweight✓
Jack Shore won by Submission (R2)
Shore 87%13% Amirkhani
STRONGMarket: 83% (+3.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +215(favors Shore)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Shore)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Amirkhani)
Lightweight✓
Chris Duncan won by Decision - Split (R3)
Duncan 62%38% Morales
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +131(favors Duncan)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Morales)
Lightweight✗
Yanal Ashmouz won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ashmouz 40%60% Patterson
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Patterson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Patterson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Patterson)
Flyweight✓
Muhammad Mokaev won by Submission (R3)
Mokaev 93%7% Filho
STRONGMarket: 87% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +252(favors Mokaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Mokaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +8.9(favors Mokaev)
Featherweight✗
Lerone Murphy won by Decision - Split (R3)
Murphy 44%56% Santos
LEANMarket: 64% (-20.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +318(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Murphy)
Middleweight✓
Christian Leroy Duncan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Duncan 57%43% Todorovic
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Todorovic)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Todorovic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Todorovic)
Flyweight✓
Jake Hadley won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hadley 85%15% Gordon
STRONGMarket: 78% (+6.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Hadley)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Hadley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Gordon)
Women's Flyweight✗
Joanne Wood won by Decision - Split (R3)
Wood 44%56% Carolina
LEANMarket: 64% (-20.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +30(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Wood)
Lightweight
Herbert 30%70% Klein
CONFIDENTMarket: 36% (-6.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +10(favors Herbert)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Klein)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Klein)
Women's Flyweight✗
Veronica Hardy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hardy 36%64% Miller
LEAN
→Elo gap: -248(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Miller)